Are you ready for a big trade?

FX:BUND   Euro-Bund
88 0 5
- Ichimoku setup is bullish , so is the major trend, but it looks like Price fails to break back above Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg             ). Both Tenkan and Kijun turned flat, not pointing up any more -> Ichimoku says consolidation, loss of momentum
- Weekly supports are: Kijun (also important horizontal level now) at 160,70. Next is 100WMA and forward Senkou B (52 weeks avg             ) at 157,40+. Last support is: trendline and spot Senkou B (represents the 52 weeks avg             26 weeks ago!) at 154,40.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision with initial bearish bias. Week not yet over, but haDelta/SMA3 has a serious warning.
- EWO             has been decreasing. We can not call it a divergence, as you see price has dropped in line with EWO             .

- Ichimoku is neutral. Price tried to break above Kumo few times, but always blocked by sellers.
- Heikin-Ashi has a bearish bias, but haDelta/SMA3 is hesitating ard             zero line. Not a surprise, as no one really wants to go all in before the Clawn of ECB comes to the stage tomorrow.
- EWO             down to neutral zero
- Short term support and the level where we can look to increase shorts is 162,80-163, Pretty close, so stay tuned!

Do you remember my reflation trade theory? If not, you can check my earlier posts about Bund!

Do you see what commodity space is doing? Exploding higher! Ideas, and stupid media reasons do not matter! I don't care why it is happening. Actually I now the primer reason behind commodity price movement. Very simple, and as technical traders this is the only thing that matters: THERE ARE MORE BUYERS THAN SELLERS!
Only price pays :-)
I know what more thing. If commodity prices go up -> inflation and inflation expectations will go up too! Even if CBs             deny and will be reluctant to hike rates, long end of bond curves can start to suffer and reprice inflation . Bond curves will steepen.

I still insist that Bonds are/will be better shorts than equities. The real bubble is in bond mkt, so this will be the first big trade. (maybe equities later).
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