BTC & BTC Volatility - Volatility at all time low
Nobody is talking about Bitcoin volatility, but everybody is talking about VIX - so here's the chart and please join me for this TED talk on the history of bitcoin volatility index BVOL when compared to BTC.
We can argue about how BVOL is calculated and whether or not it's relevant but whatever your opinion may be, you need to focus more on the comparison between the two instead of what they actually are. We do know they're relatives of each other and that's what matters the most.
The first significant event I want to discuss is the all time high on BVOL which was right around February 6. This is where BTC created a (temporary) major bottom that lasted through most of 2018.
Next - BVOL made a new low. Volatility was extremely low and this was around November 12 leading into a major cliff dive. We all remember this, right? BTC was stuck at around $6400 for what felt like a year, even though it was only a month or two.
Next - BVOL had a huge recovery going into November / December and into 2019. BVOL created a significant top around December 14 which happens to be when BTC was around $3200 - do you remember the low? It was around $3100. Who cares about a $100 miss on a long term trade? Only overleveraged degenerates that use high leverage and can't manage a trade.
Ok, next.... we had a huge run going into June/July and if you didn't get out, you were WARNED on February 8 when BVOL created a bottom and started moving up. BTC was around $9900 at the time and took a NOSE DIVE into the $4000-$5000 area. Bitcoin was dead back then, remember?
But then.... BVOL created a high. A pretty significant one. It started to curl down when BTC was at around $7000. You could have taken that run to $60,000 if it weren't for BVOL creating a significant low around July 27 which put BTC at $11k.
BTC did drop a bit... down into around $10k and each time BVOL spiked up, there was a selling opportunity.
I try to focus on only the major pivots that are in the extreme territory. I think it's safe to say that BVOL is in extremely low territory seeing that it has never been here before. Each time we've seen an extreme low, we've seen BTC drop. I know, it's hard to think that BTC will drop from here. You're so bullish! Everyone is!
Be careful trading with the herd and whatever you do, make sure you have a plan.
Have. A. Plan.
We can argue about how BVOL is calculated and whether or not it's relevant but whatever your opinion may be, you need to focus more on the comparison between the two instead of what they actually are. We do know they're relatives of each other and that's what matters the most.
The first significant event I want to discuss is the all time high on BVOL which was right around February 6. This is where BTC created a (temporary) major bottom that lasted through most of 2018.
Next - BVOL made a new low. Volatility was extremely low and this was around November 12 leading into a major cliff dive. We all remember this, right? BTC was stuck at around $6400 for what felt like a year, even though it was only a month or two.
Next - BVOL had a huge recovery going into November / December and into 2019. BVOL created a significant top around December 14 which happens to be when BTC was around $3200 - do you remember the low? It was around $3100. Who cares about a $100 miss on a long term trade? Only overleveraged degenerates that use high leverage and can't manage a trade.
Ok, next.... we had a huge run going into June/July and if you didn't get out, you were WARNED on February 8 when BVOL created a bottom and started moving up. BTC was around $9900 at the time and took a NOSE DIVE into the $4000-$5000 area. Bitcoin was dead back then, remember?
But then.... BVOL created a high. A pretty significant one. It started to curl down when BTC was at around $7000. You could have taken that run to $60,000 if it weren't for BVOL creating a significant low around July 27 which put BTC at $11k.
BTC did drop a bit... down into around $10k and each time BVOL spiked up, there was a selling opportunity.
I try to focus on only the major pivots that are in the extreme territory. I think it's safe to say that BVOL is in extremely low territory seeing that it has never been here before. Each time we've seen an extreme low, we've seen BTC drop. I know, it's hard to think that BTC will drop from here. You're so bullish! Everyone is!
Be careful trading with the herd and whatever you do, make sure you have a plan.
Have. A. Plan.