Big Citibank Opportunity

NYSE:C   Citigroup, Inc.
Citibank Opportunity - C

Company Market Cap:
$82.2 billion
Share Price Today: $42.68
Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06)
Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82%
Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023

Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield.

Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42.

Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart.

There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release.

This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail.

In Summary
- Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world
and is considered systemically important.
- Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months
with an approx. 50% reduction in price.
- Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are
reinforced by a rising RSI support line.
- To fully take advantage of the earnings release on
13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now
as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of
- If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a
warning signal of a break down into STRONG
- The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for
a systemically important institution offering a little
incentive for a longer term hold.


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