Cake downward channel, breakout?

Cake is currently in a downward consolidation channel after peaking at $26.6 on Aug 21st. You can see that it has respected the downward channel, and the probability is in the favor of a bullish breakout. If it breaks to the downside, I'd be looking to buy back in at the $15 to $15.50 level, which has acted as strong support before.

You can choose to long the bottom of the channel, but you risk a bearish break. I think the safer long play is to wait for a breakout above or below the channel and either a) buy the breakout and set stop loss a few percent below entry or b) buy the retest of a long breakout when it settles in for a retracement.

Of course, it all depends on what Bitcoin is doing, but if bitcoin continues to rise, I think the medium term is bullish for Cake. The short term can be either way depending on how this channel breaks out.

Of note, the volume hasn't dropped off as much as would be typical before a breakout but has been trending downward since Sept 29th. Additionally, the Pancakesquad NFTs launching on the 7th may be disrupting that.

Not financial advice, let me know what you think.

Comment:

Additionally, depending on how you read the Elliot wave pattern, you could argue that wave 1 is the 26 Aug to the 1st Sept, wave 3 (usually the largest) was the 7th and 8th of Sept, and wave 5 was the 20th and 21st of Sept. It gets messy for ABC waves, but you could also argue that 20th of July through the 26th of Aug was wave 1, 27th of Aug through 26th September is wave 2, and if wave 3 is upon us, watch out!

Don't use any single technical analysis tool, but instead combine them to make informed decisions. Looking at the volume profile, there's a ton of liquidity on the way down under $16, so we will have to wait and see if institutions want to soak it up or move to the next zone at $23.6. Let me know your thoughts!!! Also, I apologize for not also adding the moving averages into this TA.