Great Fundamental Outlook, Short-to-Mid-term Technicals meh...

One of the biggest fertilizer producers in the world, CF is well-poised to take advantage of the demand surge coming as planting seasons in the northern hemisphere start for the next quarter and shortages in ammonia, nitrates, and other fertilizer base materials ramp due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. All that said, it looks like things have gotten too hot and the 3-6 month technical outlook could be pretty fragile given the recent run up in price from 75 due to the conflict. On the long-term channel, the stock is sitting above the +4 standard deviation trend line. Based on a normal distribution, 99.7% of all price action happens within 3 standard deviations. In my opinion, the best case scenario is the stock retreats to $95 but is able to hold that level until it can find a new channel to settle in. Worst case is the stock drops below that $95 level where there's no volume support and could fall to the support range of $75-$56. I think falling all the way to $56 is relatively unlikely given the macro outlook but an unexpected peace deal could be that negative catalyst for the stock - though it should be noted that even a complete removal of all sanctions would not mitigate all the supply shortages in the fertilizer market as too much damage has been done to the Ukrainian fertilizer production and the planting season has already started worldwide.