sgsummers

CHF JPY Long (easy Trade) (and possible short/sell idea after)

Long
sgsummers Updated   
OANDA:CHFJPY   Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
This is an uptrend with an expanding flag. Many times these fat expanding flags lead to Head and shoulders patterns. I have marked the possible shoulder and head location. There are 3 major trend lines lines running below the pattern. We have a broken counter trend lines that is being retested lower and lower. When we have expanding flag we should almost always expect price to break outside the upper or lower border and form some sort of peak formation. Usually it will be an M/W or H and S pattern. In this case we have a break to the downside and since price is outside the border we are expecting a peak formation off of the lower trend lines. However, since we have big swings and what may be a head shoulders forming we have an obvious valley point between the left shoulder and the head. Many times the valley starts sightly lower than the left valley. We also just so happen to have a trend line sitting right below this point. Another characteristic of expanding flag is that price likes to spit them in half in an almost direct move. We have not had this happen yet. Price has been riding the lower border of this pattern. Riding the lower border, breaking out of the lower board, on top of major trend lines = BUY!. Now, if we get the expanding split, the H and S may become invalid. There is also another pattern where we get 3 consecutive peaks form in a row that could also lead to the big sell. We have also exhausted all 3 of the lower trend lines with false breaks. This could mean that the next time price comes into contact with it, we see a major sell. So, to prepare for this, look for selling opportunities at the TOP, not near the trend line. Sell high; buy low. We want cheap selling prices. And since our trend lines may have been exhausted at this point it may be a good sell trade to hold from the tip top all the past the lower trend lines.
Trade closed: stop reached
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