DaveBrascoFX

CHFTRY long

Long
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CAPITALCOM:CHFTRY   CHF/TRY
USD/CHF has slipped strongly as investors have shrugged-off uncertainty associated with the Fed interest rate outlook.
Investors have shrugged-off uncertainty associated with the hawkish interest rate outlook from Fed policymakers.
SNB Maechler commented that further hikes in interest rates cannot be ruled out.
The USD/CHF pair has witnessed an intense sell-off, following the footprints of the declining US Dollar Index (DXY) in the European session. The Swiss Franc asset has slipped sharply to near 0.8950 as investors have shrugged-off uncertainty associated with the hawkish interest rate outlook from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and upcoming Employment data.

S&P500 futures have recovered nominal losses posted in London, however, the overall market sentiment is bearish. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped vertically to near 103.00 despite more interest rate hikes from the Fed being highly likely.

Turkish lira fell to new marginally lower record low in early Wednesday, as Turkish June inflation data sparked fresh weakness of the currency.
Trend bullish
Comment:
Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
Comment:
Wall Street Ends Higher after CPI

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of respondents seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -46 in June 2023 from -30 in May, posting the weakest reading in four months and coming in below forecasts of -34. This points to a slowdown in the British housing market as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand, with average two-year fixed mortgage rates in the country recently hitting a 15-year high. Expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further this year to bring down inflation also dampened sentiment. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economics at RICS, said: “The latest increase in interest rates and the impact this has already had on mortgage rates is clearly visible in buyer enquiries, sales and prices which have all retreated over the past month.”
The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand fell to 47.5 in June 2023 from 48.9 in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the steepest since last November as activities negatively influenced by declining demand, cost increases and production/staffing issues as the key negative influences on activity for the current month. Production (47.5 vs 45.7 in May) remained subdued and new orders (43.8 vs 50.8) fell back to contraction zone. Meanwhile, employment (47 vs 49.5) contracted further while deliveries (50.5 vs 46) rebounded.
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index gave up on earlier gains to close 0.1% higher to finish around 117,700 on Wednesday, inline with global positive mood, after the US inflation data came in below expectations in June, even the core measures, suggesting a possible turning point for Federal Reserve policymakers in the coming months. On the domestic data front, services activity in Brazil grew by a more-than-expected 0.9% in May, following a decline of 1.5% in the previous month, placing the sector 11.5% above the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. On the corporate front, shares in the world's largest meatpacker JBS surged 9%, the most in the index, after proposing a dual listing of shares in Sao Paulo and New York in a securities filing today. It was followed by B3 (+2.4%), Gerdau (+2.1%) and PetroRio (+2%).
Comment:
Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases

The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%).

Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly
NZX Trades Slightly Higher
New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low
Argentina Indicators
Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23
Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23
Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23
Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23
Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23
Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23
Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23
Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22
Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22
The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
Comment:
Brazilian Stocks Fall to Finish Week on Sour Note
Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index fell 1.3% to close at 117,698 marks on Friday, after a report that showed retail sales in Brazil unexpectedly decreased in May. Brazil's retail sales fell 1% in May from a month earlier, the first decrease since December. Among single stocks, BRF tumbled 7.4% after pricing its stock offering at 9 reais per share, raising 5.4 billion reais. Also, GOL declined 6% due to forecasts indicating a loss in the second quarter and Azul slipped by 6.5%. Meanwhile, the heavyweight Petrobras lost 2.3% in line with the downward movement of oil prices. On the other hand, Méliuz surged 14.1% after closing at a record low the day before. For the week, the Ibovespa went down by 1%.

China New Home Prices Flatten in June
Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities were flat year-on-year in June 2023 after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. Among the biggest Chinese cities, prices increased in Beijing (3.5% vs 4.3% in May), Chongqing (0.6% vs 1.3%), Shanghai (4.8% vs 4.9%), and Tianjin (0.2% vs -0.3%). By contrast, cost fell in both Shenzhen (-2.4% vs -0.2%) and Guangzhou (-0.8% vs -0.4%). On a monthly basis, new home prices were unchanged, the weakest result so far this year, as as broad efforts from Beijing have not revived the ailing property sector with recovery weakening in the world's second-largest economy.

Shares in New Zealand fell 15 points or 0.13% to 11,998 in early trading at the start of the week, slightly retreating from a nearly 2-month peak hit in the prior session, amid losses from non-energy minerals, industrial services, and transport. A decline in US stock futures rattled sentiment after Wall Street closed mostly lower Friday, with the S&P 500 snapping a 4-day win streak, as investors digested bank earnings. Traders also took a cautious stance ahead of a flurry of economic data from China later in the day, including Q2 GDP readings, with concerns growing that the post-pandemic bounce is rapidly losing momentum.
US Natgas Prices Fall to 1-Month Low
Colombia Industrial Output Falls Less than Expected
Manufacturing production in Columbia sank by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2023, following a 6.4% decline in the previous month and compared with market estimates of a 4.9% contraction. The downturn added to recent evidence that the Colombian economy is succumbing to the aggressive interest rate hikes from its central bank. Output fell primarily for paper products (-15.1%), beverages (-11.2%), chemical products (-14.7%), and textiles (-22.1%).
Comment:
YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data

China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates

The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month.

Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data

Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon.
China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data

The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
Comment:
This trade is still open and active

Government Bond Yields Fall for 2nd Session

Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.



The yield on the German 10-year government bond fell to 2.4%, down from the four-month high of 2.679% reached on July 10, as signs of cooling inflation in the US increased speculation that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of a series of significant interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank is expected to persist with raising rates throughout the year, aiming for a deposit rate peak of 4% by year-end. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Hawkish ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel expressed caution on Monday about further tightening moves in September, stating that "we will see what the data will tell us." In addition, his colleague Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond July’s meeting is anything but guaranteed.




Turkish Lira Weakens to Fresh Record Low

The Turkish lira weakened more than 2% to a fresh record low of 26.9 per USD, as both the central bank and state-run banks stopped supporting the currency ahead of the central bank monetary policy decision on Thursday. Most investors expect a 500bps increase in interest rates, although some market participants said the rise could be smaller. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%


Euro Hits Fresh 17-Month High

The euro strengthened its position above $1.12, reaching its highest level since February 2022, on the back of investor expectations that the European Central Bank will continue its rate-hike cycle to tackle inflation and bring it closer to the 2% target. In the Eurozone, inflation declined to a 17-month low of 5.5% in June, but the core rate remained stubbornly high at 5.4%, still close to the all-time high of 5.7% seen in March. Currently, the interest rates in the bloc stand at 3.5%, but traders anticipate rates peaking at 4% by the end of the year. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Simultaneously, the recently released weaker-than-expected US inflation data has fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the conclusion of its current policy tightening measures.
Comment:
Trade is open