Realisto_FX
Long

Macro Outlook : Crude Oil vs Fed Funds Rate

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Hi Traders,

We are probably very close to a bottom in crude oil             prices due to last hike on Fed Funds interest rates.

The charts shows certain correlation , not purely exact but it provides forward guidance, with the exceptional period of QE .

Technically it formed a channel that supports reversion to the mean

Not necessarily represents an inmediate rally in crude oil             prices, but a consolidation period .

I hope it helps

Josep Pocalles
http://www.realisto.net
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Related Ideas

This chart would support more fundamental data , petroleum supply have peaked ?

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masagrooove Realisto_FX
Thanks for sharing my friend. I really like your macro analysis. I am not Elliot Wave expert but can I also count this way?
Reply
Realisto_FX masagrooove
It will depend if it breaks back on daily below 29.5 , otherwise bullish scenario is valid on my view
Reply
FED monetary base = WTI oil price.
Reply
masagrooove masagrooove
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&height=600&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=WCOILWTICO&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=10yrs&s%5B1%5D%5Bscale%5D=Left&s%5B2%5D%5Bid%5D=BASE&s%5B2%5D%5Brange%5D=10yrs&s%5B2%5D%5Bscale%5D=Right
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Realisto_FX masagrooove
Thanks for your feedback, I guess is more complex than an equation , monetary base is somehow 'virtual' , while oil is 'physical' with associated production costs , demand / supply balance, etc. If Fed hikes rates because economy is stronger, demand will increase. If prices go below production cost, more sooner than later we´ll have less supply and inventories will be adjusted
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masagrooove Realisto_FX
Many thanks for reply. I like your macro analyst very much. Oil market seems crude inventories fall -> oil prices jump -> cash-> strapped producers ramp production -> crude inventories rise - oil prices drop -> repeat...
+1 Reply
thanks good information
+1 Reply
you are welcome abbas
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