Realisto_FX
Long

Macro Outlook : Crude Oil vs Fed Funds Rate

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
450 9 9
Hi Traders,

We are probably very close to a bottom in crude oil             prices due to last hike on Fed Funds interest rates.

The charts shows certain correlation , not purely exact but it provides forward guidance, with the exceptional period of QE             .

Technically it formed a channel that supports reversion to the mean

Not necessarily represents an inmediate rally in crude oil             prices, but a consolidation period .

I hope it helps

Josep Pocalles
http://www.realisto.net
You can subscribe to my mailing list for FX Alerts : http://eepurl.com/bp_sgP
Webinars & One-to-One Training available, pay per minute

Related Ideas

Realisto_FX
Long USOIL
Realisto_FX PRO about USOIL 13 10 months ago
abbas
11 months ago
thanks good information
+1 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO abbas
10 months ago
you are welcome abbas
Reply
masagrooove PRO
10 months ago
FED monetary base = WTI oil price.
Reply
masagrooove PRO masagrooove
10 months ago
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&height=600&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=WCOILWTICO&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=10yrs&s%5B1%5D%5Bscale%5D=Left&s%5B2%5D%5Bid%5D=BASE&s%5B2%5D%5Brange%5D=10yrs&s%5B2%5D%5Bscale%5D=Right
Reply
Realisto_FX PRO masagrooove
10 months ago
Thanks for your feedback, I guess is more complex than an equation , monetary base is somehow 'virtual' , while oil is 'physical' with associated production costs , demand / supply balance, etc. If Fed hikes rates because economy is stronger, demand will increase. If prices go below production cost, more sooner than later we´ll have less supply and inventories will be adjusted
Reply
masagrooove PRO Realisto_FX
10 months ago
Many thanks for reply. I like your macro analyst very much. Oil market seems crude inventories fall -> oil prices jump -> cash-> strapped producers ramp production -> crude inventories rise - oil prices drop -> repeat...
+1 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO
10 months ago
This chart would support more fundamental data , petroleum supply have peaked ?

snapshot
Reply
masagrooove PRO Realisto_FX
10 months ago
Thanks for sharing my friend. I really like your macro analysis. I am not Elliot Wave expert but can I also count this way?
snapshot
Reply
Realisto_FX PRO masagrooove
10 months ago
It will depend if it breaks back on daily below 29.5 , otherwise bullish scenario is valid on my view
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out