WTI OIL Last spike before correction to $83.50WTI Oil (USOIL) has been following a 18-year pattern of very clear long-term Cycle Tops and Bottoms. Since the U.S. - Iran war started, it violently breached the 0.786 Fibonacci level of this pattern but even though it broke it both during March and April, it failed to maintain the bullish momentum and close above it.
Technically this is because the 0.786 level has formed all market Tops since the July 2008 High. Even when the Ukraine - Russia war broke out, it spent 5 months on the 0.786 Fib and then corrected aggressively to the 0.618 Fib.
This is what we expect to take place for the rest of the year. Currently the last rally towards +110.00 around June and then structured correction to $83.50 (Fib 0.618) at least as the U.S. - Iran war gradually fades on the second page of the news.
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Crude
Brent Crude Targets $156 It is amazing how different approaches give same projection
Month ago, I shared with you the Bull Flag pattern on this very same chart
This time, I spotted the EW Triangular consolidation (yellow) in wave B
as part of ABC pattern, which targets the same area above $150 as Bull Flag does
All requirements for triangles have been met, ABCDE sequence looks completed
Wave B (Triangle) retraced exactly to 38.2% Fibonacci level and then bounced up
Bullish confirmation is set above the triangle on the breakout of peak of wave D beyond $115
Wave C could hit $156 mark if its size would be the same as wave A
Invalidation is set at the bottom of wave e of Triangle below $96
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Up aiming at $111WTI Crude Oil is neutral on both its 1D and 4H technical outlooks (RSI = 50.311, MACD = 1.000, ADX = 24.290) as the price is consolidating short-term inside this Channel Up and long the long-term it is recovering still May's decline. As long as the Channel Up stays intact, the price should aim for the R1 level (TP = 111.00).
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CRUDE OIL MINI (MCX) โ SELL SETUP/ 15/05/2026Crude Oil approaching a strong resistance zone after an aggressive upside rally.
Price is reacting near the supply area, creating a potential short opportunity for disciplined traders.
๐น Sell Entry Zone: 10040 โ 10055
๐น Stop Loss: Above 10110
๐น Target Zone: 9750
โ ๏ธ Wait for confirmation & proper risk management before entry.
No revenge trading. No emotional trading. Follow the plan.
Market rewards discipline, not excitement. ๐
#CrudeOil #MCX #IntradayTrading #PriceAction #TradingView #CommodityTrading #RiskManagement #TradingSetup #ShortTrade #BKQuantDesk
Crude Oil Approaching Final Corrective Wave Within A TriangleCrude oil remains in a complex corrective structure, with a final E-wave recovery potentially unfolding before the broader bearish trend continues.
Crude oil has been trading within a broad corrective structure ever since the sharp spike to 119 at the beginning of March. From that high, the market completed a strong impulsive decline in wave A, followed by a three-wave rebound into the 118.55 resistance area.
Although the market experienced a sharp selloff during the first half of April, prices managed to stabilize around the 82 support region, opening the door for another recovery leg. Because of this rebound, the current structure no longer looks like a direct impulsive wave C decline. Instead, price action is now suggesting the formation of a more complex correction, with a triangle pattern currently looking like the preferred scenario.
This type of formation is typically considered bearish, but it also suggests that the correction may need one more recovery leg before the larger downtrend resumes. Recent weakness appears to be part of a wave D decline, which may already be close to completion.
As such, crude oil could now be entering the final wave E recovery phase, with upside potential toward the 103โ108 resistance zone in the near term. Once this corrective bounce completes, the broader bearish trend is expected to resume, especially if the market breaks below the key red trendline support.
In that case, crude oil could revisit the 87 gap area or even extend losses toward lower levels later on.
WTI Crude Oil (H1)Market remains in a strong uptrend, with price respecting the rising trendline and forming higher lows.
Current setup:
Price is holding above a key demand zone around 103.5โ104.0, showing signs of continuation.
Bias: Bullish
Targets:
106.50 (TP1)
110.80 (TP2)
Invalidation:
Break below 102.20 (trendline + structure)
Idea: Trend continuation from demand within a strong bullish structure.
Clean risk-to-reward if entries are taken near the zone.
WTI OIL Channel Up targeting $107.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up that is similar to the April 19 - 24 pattern. Having also formed a 1H MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross and just closing above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern should now complete a +12.20% Bullish Leg, supported by the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the April pattern did.
Based on that and with the 1H RSI also flatlined, our short-term Target is $107.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: $86.00 may come before $115.00.WTI Crude Oil turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.290, MACD = 0.870, ADX = 20.092) as this is the 3rd day of trading sideways, supported by the 1D MA50. If it closes a session under the 1D MA50, expect a sharp test of the 0.236 Fib (TP = 86.00). Long term, one more rally towards the R1 level is expected (TP = 115.00) before geopolitical tensions ease and the market starts correcting back to pre-war levels.
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WTI OIL The 4H MA50 serves as the current Support.WTI Oil (USOIL) is rising within a Channel Up, inside the wider 2-month Triangle since the start of the U.S. - Iran war. This Channel Up is now facing its strongest probability of breaking downwards as it is on its bottom for the second time in 2 consecutive days.
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) serves as the Support. As long as it holds, expect another Bullish Leg towards the top of the Triangle, targeting $114.00. A break below the 4H MA50 opens the way for a Support Zone test at $93.00.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: 4H Golden Cross pushing the price higher.WTI Crude Oil turned again marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.655, MACD = 3.370, ADX = 26.213), rebounding on its 4H MA50 after the formation of a 4H Golden Cross. This is a Channel Up similar to March's, both inside the ranged consolidation of the wider Rectangle pattern. Expect rise to continue towards the R1 (TP = 115.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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WTI OIL 1H Channel Up targeting $105.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 1-week Channel Up since last Monday and has technically filled all Resistance gaps from the early April decline.
As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds, this aggressive pattern should aim for the next gap fill on Resistance 3. Our Target is directly below it at $105.
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WTI: Targeting $101 this week.WTI Crude Oil is bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 57.084, MACD = 1.060, ADX = 27.670), trading inside a short term Channel Up after the LH trendline breakout. The next Resistance is the 0.618 Fibonacci level where March made consecutive attempts to break it from th1 16th to the 23rd. We are bullish towards it (TP = 101.00) until we see a candle close above it, in which case further upside towards the R1 is possible.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Best long term bet to $70.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL has had very clear long term tops and bottoms since the July 2008 ATH.
The Fibonacci levels from that top and the January 2009 bottom suggest that last month we hit a major resistance, the 0.786 Fib, where the market got heavily rejected another 5 time before.
This is a no-brainer for long term investors.
WTI is targeting by the end of 2027 the 0.5 Fib at $70.00 at least like it did on the 2022-2023 rejection.
Previous chart:
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Brent Crude Update: Bull Flag Targets $152Gulf Conflict puts high volatility on oil market as
triangle posted earlier was broken down to
transform into another consolidation pattern - Bull Flag
Flag pole is in blue and the Flag is in yellow
The price is testing the resistance already
Watch breakout
Confirmation level sits at the top of previous high at $112
RSI supports the upcoming rally as it keeps above 50 level of "waterline"
Invalidation is below the valley of the pattern at $86
Target is measured by adding the flag pole to the breakout point
It is located at $152
WTI OIL rebounding on its 1D MA50.WTI Oil (USOIL) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), even though it broke (but recovered it) on Friday. This is staging a rebound on the 1D time-frame, which as we mentioned last week, is similar structurally to the early 2022 Ukraine - Russia War fractal.
That is displayed on the right chart, which calls now for a rebound towards at least the 0.786 Fibonacci level as it happened on June 06 2022. On the 1D time-frame there are two additional patterns involved: a Rectangle and a Channel Down. Both have the 0.786 Fib within limits. As a result, targeting $110.00 is within technical reach.
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Oil Bull Rally Starting Soon?(Not financial advice)
Comment below please. It is fun to discuss the outlook.
Based on my current wave count, I think wave 4 is done and we are in wave 5 now. Mainly due to the fact that the final mid-March rally that led to the double top was not an impulsive move, mixed with the absolutely beautiful alternating symmetry we are seeing here in the wave structures. The amount of time they are taking to complete and the fib extensions all line up so well.
(Wave 4)
Price discovery takes time when radical changes happen in one of the most important global markets (oil)! Typically the middle of the price discovery range ($100/barrel) is seen to be "Fair Value".
This wave 4 pullback started off with an initial, very large, high energy wave W crash to start it off, but that wasn't the end of the story.
Then the X(1) structure wants to appear impulsive, but I am certain we are looking at a 3-wave corrective structure up in X.
Then Y has a nice 5 wave move. Notice that Y is shrunken almost because the W wave was just so aggressive. Think of the market as containing potential energy - well, W used up too much and so Y got the leftovers.
The following X(2) wave has amounted to an average move out of the 3 downward corrective moves here.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Similarities with 2022 are astounding and now calWTI Crude Oil has just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.791, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 40.652), which is the ideal time to buy again for the medium term. The fractal of 2026 and 2022 are almost identical and as the circles mark, we have just crossed under the 1D MA50 as in April 2022. If the 1D MA100 holds, we should technically see a similar rebound to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 110.00). RSI fractals also identical.
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CRUDE OIL: Off to new highs!Whatโs changed?
WTI futures prices dropped sharply on Friday. During the decline, WTI reached our Target Zone. We believe WTI has established the low of its downward move and should now break above resistance at $119.48.
Primary Scenario
WTI is already in an upward move and should next break above resistance at $95.03 and then $119.48. After these respective peaks, we expect significant sell-offs into our blue Long-Term Entry Range, where the ongoing corrections should finally conclude.
Alternative Scenario
In our alternative scenarios, prices could fall below support at $54.98 sooner, forming early correction lows in the blue Long-Term Entry Ranges (probability: 33%).
Long-Term Outlook
Weekly charts indicate that the current corrective upward series should stall below resistance at $130.50, allowing the corrections to continue. After correction lows in the blue Long-Term Entry Range, we expect a strong rally above $147.27.
Market Adapts to Higher PricesIn last weekโs tutorial, we discussed a potential cup and handle pattern. I received comments expressing concern that if prices reach those levels, the economy will be unable to sustain them. I share these concerns. If that happens, the economy may suffer an initial setback; however, it will likely adapt to higher crude oil prices over time.
We have seen how the economy adapted to high oil prices following the 1973 oil embargo and from the start of the 'war on terror' in 2001 to the present day.
Most importantly, we must focus on what we can do now to prepare for what is coming.
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures and Options.
Micro WTI Crude Oil
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
โข What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
โข Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
The Key to Cup and Handle BreakoutThe Key to Cup and Handle Breakout -
It lies in its strong momentum in either:
i) Before Or
ii) At Or
iii) After
The pivot level. The pivot level is its former resistance, it needs either a strong momentum to break through before or at. Even after the resistance level, with the strong momentum, it indicates a psychological clearance; the former resistance, now a support level.
The "Before" example with crude oil:
The "At" or "Through" example with gold and copper:
The "After example with silver:
Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures and Options.
Micro WTI Crude Oil
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
โข What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
โข Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
KOG - USOILQuick look at Oil for the week ahead:
We had a slight stretch on this opening last week but we stuck with the plan and as you can see we managed to complete the swing into the lower level towards the end of the week.
We would like to see this target that lower level and if we can hold there, an opportunity may be available to attempt the long trade on the retracement. We'll play level to level here, the breach above is needed for a new high, otherwise this back and forth news could keep us in a range here.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. Weโve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG






















