Thanks for the response andrein. That's exactly why it is coiling...low volumes. When it breaks (up or down) the volumes will explode...that's how price works. At this point it looks as if it wants to break to the upside. If it falls back in the range then it does. Look at our past posts and video links. We have said and believe that oil will see some further downside. However, if it breaks to the upside there is plenty of room for a "trade". There is no doubt that it will take crude a few months, and maybe longer to find a bottom. Upside moves will get sold for a while. My analysis...after trading physicals for 15 years I learned that despite supply and demand the oil companies need a defined price in crude to turn a profit and we are quite ways away from that number. So my long term outlook is we bounce up and down in this range for a few months and then break to the upside and find that number around $60-$70..until that happens all trade will be short swings at best. Thanks
The March contract is breaking out...that will most likely drag the continuous contract with it. If we close above the area then it will be time to look for triggers long. If price falls back in the range then it will most likely be a shake and bake fake.
Great question....it very well could but that would be a guess at best. Since we have fallen back in to the range today it is a coin toss. We are favoring the long side but will need to see a close above the pattern before we look for a trigger long. We are very patient and will wait for good confirmation.