The rise in oil seems to never end, all estimates are up, the target is $ 100 a barrel for authoritative institutional sources.
I have "surfed" the trend from the terrible COVID collapse to today, where I believe it is appropriate to take profit, leaving as always a small part in the portfolio, considering the fantastic average purchase price.
Analyzing the seasonal chart, we see that oil has historically been in a bearish phase that runs from October to January, in total contrast with the S&P 500 which does the exact opposite.
This is due to a thousand factors that I am not here to report, to avoid writing 5 pages of analysis.
October 2021 is clearly the classic exception, for events that we all know, first among OPEC that does not intend to give in to the demand for higher production.
The situation could continue up to the famous $ 100 a barrel but from experience, I know that the market always anticipates.
Then analyzing the futures chart, we can clearly see how extensive the bullish phase is, the result of a historical rebound, which had brought the price even negative. The price, since its last return to the 200 average on August 20, has reached the 1.414 Fibonacci level.
A pull-back at least in the $ 76 zone appears very likely in my opinion.
For this reason, as well as for having reached 100% profit, I decided to take home part of the profit, keeping a percentage in the portfolio with an average purchase price of € 3.39 (ETC Crude Oil "CRUD" which replicates the performance of the futures, without the leverage effect).
For the future, I will evaluate income only and only after the inevitable reversal that sooner or later will happen. Obviously, I will keep all my readers updated ...
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
I have "surfed" the trend from the terrible COVID collapse to today, where I believe it is appropriate to take profit, leaving as always a small part in the portfolio, considering the fantastic average purchase price.
Analyzing the seasonal chart, we see that oil has historically been in a bearish phase that runs from October to January, in total contrast with the S&P 500 which does the exact opposite.
This is due to a thousand factors that I am not here to report, to avoid writing 5 pages of analysis.
October 2021 is clearly the classic exception, for events that we all know, first among OPEC that does not intend to give in to the demand for higher production.
The situation could continue up to the famous $ 100 a barrel but from experience, I know that the market always anticipates.
Then analyzing the futures chart, we can clearly see how extensive the bullish phase is, the result of a historical rebound, which had brought the price even negative. The price, since its last return to the 200 average on August 20, has reached the 1.414 Fibonacci level.
A pull-back at least in the $ 76 zone appears very likely in my opinion.
For this reason, as well as for having reached 100% profit, I decided to take home part of the profit, keeping a percentage in the portfolio with an average purchase price of € 3.39 (ETC Crude Oil "CRUD" which replicates the performance of the futures, without the leverage effect).
For the future, I will evaluate income only and only after the inevitable reversal that sooner or later will happen. Obviously, I will keep all my readers updated ...
Happy trading
Lazy Bull
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