The "white" strip in the oil market is dragged out

Despite the fundamental breakdown that brings the results of the last meeting of OPEC to the oil market, investors and traders do not have time and opportunity to reevaluate their views on market conditions due to a number of events affecting prices on the oil market.

Last week, we already talked about the fact that the shutdown of the oil plant in Fort McMurray (Canada), as well as another oil repartition in Libya, led to the activation of buyers in the oil market. Sanctions against Iran also make market participants nervous. The effect of these news was reinforced by a record decrease in US oil inventories (by more than 9 million barrels, both from API data and official statistics). And the final blow was data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of oil rigs was reduced by 4 units. Note that in the case of statistics from Baker Hughes, the problem is not in the fact of reducing the number of drilling rigs, but in the fact that this information sharply activated conversations that oil production in the US reached its limit (we are talking about so-called infrastructure restrictions that are simply do not allow to move and store oil in large volumes without expansion of existing capacities).

Against this background, any news in favor of oil sales were simply lost. These are the statements of Aramco about the intentions to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Or, for example, information that the export of oil from the US reached a record 3 million barrels a day. With a production level of 10.9 million barrels per day (only Russia produces more than 11 million barrels per day). Or here another news: BP June 28 announced the purchase of Chargemaster, Britain's largest network of stations for recharging electric vehicles. A number of similar purchases last year made Shell. Cause? The largest oil companies understand that the era of oil is coming to an end. According to their analysts, the market of electric vehicles will grow by 8800% (!) from 2017 to 2040 years.

But the participants of the oil market are ignoring the future and prefer to live in the present.

So far, buyers and optimism are ruling the oil market. Once again, we note that the soil of this optimism, in our opinion, is rather unstable and is of a temporary nature. Therefore, we continue to recommend the sale of oil. The only correction in the recommendations (relative to our previous report) is to wait until unrestrained optimism begins to weaken. And so, in general, prices have become only more attractive for sales.