Alif12399
Short

The Bulls Must Be Careful (CL1! - Continuous Chart)

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures

At CL1! , price is entering a strong supply zone , marked by the top red rectangle box. It is a strong zone because this is Daily time frame. The long black candle marked by the red arrow is a proof that we are in the strong supply zone . Retailers must be careful because this is the place where the banks will play us out by hunting our stop losses. We don't know what they are going to do next. There are few possible scenarios that I can foresee:

1. Price will go up until 74.5x area and retrace. Please have a look of my count at the 4H chart below.

It is possible that price will retrace a bit until 71.10 to 70.x and then go up again to make another HH. The reason for this idea is because currently there is an Ending Diagonal (ED) shape at Daily time frame. In an uptrend ED, there should be 5 legs skewed up and most of the time, wave 4 will overlap wave 1. For the moment, 74.5x looks like a reasonable target for the 3rd leg. I will share below the possible plot for the ED.

Probability 1 of ED count:

Probability 2 of ED count:

However, if price fall and break below 66.79, that is the ultimate confirmation that there's no ED. It is an impulsive wave, instead.

2. Price will go up a lil' bit more and then fall to the "C" area in the red rectangle box. Please refer to the CL1! chart at the top. If price reverse up at that area, it's possible a running flat will unfold and that is a very bullish sentiment. It shows the psychological state of the bulls that are so eager to push the price up. They can't wait for the price to retrace further down.

3. Price go up a bit more and fall to the Alt 1 and 2 areas. Then only price will reverse up. If that happens, we'll have a text book flat count for the start of wave 5 upward.

4. Price pump up straight to the 80s. haha...

As always, these are just probabilities. Price can unfold totally different from what we expect. Don't forget to follow your trading plan. All the best! :)
Oct 01
Comment: Resistance area:
Oct 02
Comment:
Price managed to close above the red box at Daily time frame but bearish divergence is still intact. Base on my count at smaller tf, there are still room for price to move up. I have no confirmation on what is the correct count for this price movement at Daily tf because from one perspective, it looks like an extended wave 5 which shouldn't move up so much anymore but from another perspective, it is possible part of a bigger rally. Anyway, for short term trades, it is obviously a good opportunity to long when it retrace and bounce at certain support area(s).
Oct 10
Comment: Looks like an expanded flat in the making but more confirmation needed because the blue rectangle box seems going to be a tough area to break. Must take note on the fibonacci levels and the trendlines too.
Remember to always have alternate views. Trade what we see, not what we forecasted. If what we see at the chart is different from what we forecasted, just revise our forecast.
Oct 14
Comment: Weekly:
At weekly, price managed to close above the support area (blue box) and above the purple trendline.

Daily:
At daily, although price closed below the resistance area (red box), price still managed to close above the trendline (black dotted). A bullish harami candle and a bullish slingshot at MACD histogram can also be seen.

4H:
At 4H, the last candle was a bullish engulfing and price closed above the trendline. The MCAD also is about cross up.

I will not update the chart for CLX but if you look at them, they are also showing signals almost the same as CL1! where price closes above the support at weekly and daily tf.

From these signals, I honestly think that the bulls can find the setup to long but must be very careful once price reach the blue rectangle box at Daily tf that ranges from 72.30 to 73.30 because that area looks like a very strong resistance area. It can just be a retracement before price continue to fall.
Oct 18
Comment: Like I've stated before, the blue rectangle box that ranges approximately from 72.30 to 73.30 is a strong resistance area:
Oct 18
Comment: Ignore the wave count. ;)
Oct 18
Comment: I'm looking for a possibility for price to reverse at the green box marked with the red arrow: Whatever the target is, when there is reversal candle at 4H accompanied with divergence, I think it's wise to exit all your shorts or at least exit all of it except 1 position to do pyramiding if there's signal that price will be reversing down again. Don't forget to trail your SL to BE for that remaining position (s).
Nov 02
Comment:
Nov 08
Comment: Wave iii might have a little bit more room on the downside. Nevertheless, bullish divergence is intact at 4H and Daily. If my count is right, wave iv might start soon.
Nov 08
Comment:
Wave v might end at the green arrow area. That area has confluence between horizontal support and weekly trendline (blue line). Let's see...
Nice ideas! The gap areas highlighted correspond to my ideas. I invite you to see them for yourself.
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Alif12399 Zoen_Trieste
@Zoen_Trieste, sure. Will do. :)
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