Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022

We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 13.69%, decreasing from 13.8% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 57th percentile according to ATR and 92th according to OVX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 9.577%
BULLISH Candle : 7.46%


With this in mind we can expect with a close to 24.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 74.5
TOP: 98.3


Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 94.4
27% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 80.5