timwest

Where is crude oil going next?

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
1916 13 35
17 days ago
Some thoughts for all of us this morning:

What is important in life is not to be right, but to be pleasant to deal with, because we are all going to be wrong a lot in life. The biggest losers are driven by being right because inevitably they put on their biggest positions when they want to be right and miss an important fact or overlook risk somewhere.

So what should we do?
First off, always question yourself.
Second, always check your risk.
Third, always look for what could be wrong with your analysis.
Fourth, have a team of people to make a decision, like here in a chatroom or here at TradingView publishing charts.

Why? Because you will make better decisions in a group than on your own, in the long haul and be far more likely to miss that one big, bad trade that will take you out of the business. When you share you expose your idea to the light of everyone's perspective, and then truth can reveal itself. If the trade is great and someone didn't think of it themselves, they will say, "Hey I didn't think of that! That's a great idea!" and you can tell that maybe plenty of other people haven't thought of that yet either. So there are potentially other people to join in that trade and drive it to a new price level. Then you can see "potential in a group" much better than as an individual. If the group is selfless, the group will all benefit by realizing the group is there to help you and not to hurt you.

So, if you feel that feeling of "SHOOT, I WISH I HAD THOUGHT OF THAT"....then stop yourself and realize it and say "That looks great! I wish I had thought of it!" Instead of the opposite feeling, which is trying to protect your ego and make you feel smart. Smart is just realizing a good idea and defining a plan.

If you just "AGREE" to whatever someone publishes, then you aren't thinking or being open to your feelings. Being successful in trading isn't about coming up with great ideas, it is from sharing an idea and getting critical feedback from a caring group and then assessing risk and putting on the right size position. Once the position is on, it is ALL ABOUT managing the exit and the position size along the way. Also, we must analyze new information that hits once the trade is on objectively and rationally, without concern if we are "right" or "wrong".

Trading is NOT a popularity contest and it is NOT about being "RIGHT". It is about contributing information and shedding light on the truth of the market to help us all gauge the direction, magnitude and risk in any market. So, get active by being a truth seeker and a contributor to the markets you are interested in here at TradingView.

Express your "Trading View" and get success in the markets.

With best regards,

Tim West

9:16AM Tuesday, November 22, 2016

4 days ago
Comment: Sharing, Feedback, Adjusting, Learning, Updating =>> S.F.A.L.U. Not a great acronym. But what TradingView is all about is just that: SHARE what you know, whether a forecast, information, observation that has substance or some merit. Then, get feedback from users, or in time from the market. Adjust your "size", "stop", "position" (in or out, long vs short perhaps) based on feedback. Consider whether you have "Learned" something from the feedback and store it for next time. Update the trade when the stop is hit or when the target is reached. It's not easy to remember to do, but if you do your experience here at TradingView will get better exponentially.
Tim 8:37AM Dec 5, 2016 EST.
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
G13Man
17 days ago
+1 , i lke working with a few , we had a great run last year , now by myself , i am just average
your words are exactly how i feel and would like to work /chart
name calling is a distraction and an interference in clear speaking/charting
+1 Reply
Agree on your thoughts. But what about oil ? :)
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trd
17 days ago
Thanks for posting Tim,

But there is no answer in this posting. Where crude is Crude oil going next?
+2 Reply
rbarnes1337 PRO trd
17 days ago
@trd, Indeed. I was rather looking forward to Mr. West's commentary, as I've enjoyed reading his analysis on bitcoin in the past.

Since he's not yet willing to stick his neck out, perhaps I will. The key level to watch on today's trading (11/23/16) is $49.10. That level represents a Gann angle-test on both the daily CL1 as well as the 4-hour CLF2017. It looks to me like we won't have a closing above 49.10 and price will slide further, with today's trading providing the impulse we need for another proper "down setup" on the 4-hour chart which will bring in continued losses in the future. According to Gann methods, the mere presence of 13 consecutive down wicks on CL1 (lower lows, wicking lower each day) for 13 consecutive days (13 being a Fib number) opens the possibility for a protracted correction to the down-side. You'll know that the down setup is still valid by watching the angle-test of the 1*1 (45 degree) line on the CL1 chart for the next few days. If valid, price will close below $49.10 today, below $48.90 tomorrow, below $48.80 the following day, etc. Since I don't publish charts, you can recreate mine if you're interested by setting up a daily CL1 with $20 of price (I''ve got a range of $54 to $34), and time from about mid-October to mid-August of 2017. Draw a 45 degree trend angle, then draw a Gann fan over top of it with the 1*1 lined up at 45 degrees.

Happy trading.

Reply
timwest PRO trd
13 days ago
@trd, This post was to discuss other, more important matters besides predicting crude oil. Hope you can go back and enjoy the content I posted.
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Thanks Tim,
Fully agreed,
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YuanyuanJu
14 days ago
Thanks Tim. I think short term and medium term, oil will be uptrend. But because Trump will build country's infrastructure,I do not think Trump will make oil price very high. It is not good for the USAs infranstructure. Us dollar will go up and oil price will be in a good level for the infrastructure.
I do not know if it is right thinking. I am new in the stock market.
wish all the best.
Reply
timwest PRO YuanyuanJu
13 days ago
@YuanyuanJu, Nice to hear from you. It has been awhile. Thanks for offering your opinion on where oil is going. The content I posted was about how to make decisions and how to use Tradingview to maximize your success. I could re-post with a different "attention grabbing headline" than this one. Hope all is well and thanks for your opinion!
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aibek
8 days ago
Hi Tim, totally agree! It's all about psychology and giving/taking and ego and social interaction. You quite often you understand things but can't put it into a digestible word form. You did it! Thanks for the good post man! Best wishes! Aibek
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sharmapanki
8 days ago
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Hi Tim, fabulous post and I'm sorry for taking so long to respond to it. There is a great deal of knowledge available via trading view that should absolutely be taken advantage of. It can indeed be easy to make a couple of good trades and let ego take over; I've been guilty of this and learned the hard way that the market is designed to stop out speculators. I love that Trading view is an education/sharing based community and agree that all should work as a team with an open mind. I have a tendency to become very biased towards targets in my analysis and have to remember not to let tunnel vision take over. I look for this community to help guide me in remembering that by sharing their ideas and thoughts.

Regarding oil, I'd like to share this chart; keep in mind, it is not complete analysis or a strategy; but I've noticed that price behavior and price is very similar to that of the initial selling climax in early 2015; prices do not always take the exact same path when finding precious ranges/clusters however we have an interesting and similar scenario between week 3/23/15 and 11/28/16; I've marked the candle with the circled text on the chart; again, this is only an observation and would love for all to add their thoughts. Iv'e noticed that last weeks weekly candle jumped up again above the 48.36 selling climax from early 2015 where it was followed by another rally over the next couple of month up into the high 50's. What are your thoughts on this? Interested in your view.

Thanks again Tim for the great post and good trading all!
snapshot
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
5 days ago
@smitheric1970, one additional comment; I am looking to the green zone to find resolution.
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
5 days ago
@smitheric1970, Hey Tim, sorry, please let me know if you'd rather steer the particular oil analysis to another post and I'll try to help steer. Thanks!
Reply
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