Crude oil has experienced a decline of over $13 from its 2023 highs, reflecting traders' anticipation of weaker economic growth and a slowing consumer. Despite OPEC's announcement of additional production cuts and the ongoing efforts of member countries to defend prices throughout the year, it is evident that the market is bracing for diminished demand.
Recent Developments:
Recent figures from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for Q4 reported a growth rate of 1.2%, falling short of the expected 1.8%. Additionally, this week's JOLTs numbers for Job Openings came in at 8.73 million, below the expected 9.3 million, and ADP Non-Farm Payrolls on December 6th registered 103k, lower than the anticipated 130k. These indicators indicate emerging signs of a weakening labor market, prompting expectations of interest rate cuts as early as March 2024.
More Selling to Come?
The occurrence of the Death Cross, observed in the crude market on November 30th when the 50-Day EMA crossed below the 200-Day EMA, suggests potential further downside momentum. While technical analysis indicates the likelihood of additional downward movement, significant support is anticipated at the psychologically significant $70 level. Continued weakness in economic data could, however, pose challenges for crude's ability to maintain support in the near term
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Recent Developments:
Recent figures from the Atlanta Fed GDP Now model for Q4 reported a growth rate of 1.2%, falling short of the expected 1.8%. Additionally, this week's JOLTs numbers for Job Openings came in at 8.73 million, below the expected 9.3 million, and ADP Non-Farm Payrolls on December 6th registered 103k, lower than the anticipated 130k. These indicators indicate emerging signs of a weakening labor market, prompting expectations of interest rate cuts as early as March 2024.
More Selling to Come?
The occurrence of the Death Cross, observed in the crude market on November 30th when the 50-Day EMA crossed below the 200-Day EMA, suggests potential further downside momentum. While technical analysis indicates the likelihood of additional downward movement, significant support is anticipated at the psychologically significant $70 level. Continued weakness in economic data could, however, pose challenges for crude's ability to maintain support in the near term
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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