Oil strongly correlated with broad market

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Oil prices have been under pressure recently, due to many factors. Largely, financial media has presented the price decline as a supply-side story. USA produces more oil , price goes down. More importantly, though, is the demand side story. The demand side story is the shrinking demand for these oil reserves due to a projected economic slowdown, particularly in the Dow Transports. This projected slowdown was indicated by Tim Cook today, in guidance to investors, he said,
"We did not foresee, the magnitude of the economic deceleration."

This is not to be taken lightly when spoken by CEO of America's largest corporation by market cap, and we should expect a market reaction.
What is very interesting to me however, is not just that markets would move on this guidance, but the degree to which Crude Oil seems to move in response to this guidance. We have seen the likes of UPS and FEDEX trading lower recently, but APPL, given it's FAANG designation, seems to be somewhat decoupled from transports, yet, the response in Oil futures was immediate. Apple ( AAPL ) is moving the oil market, SIGNIFICANTLY. This is fascinating to me. I've shown this in the chart above where the timing of the AAPL release is noted. Candles are the pricing for Oil futures , where the line indicates pricing for SP500 futures . Tim Cook just moved global oil prices 2% ..... Let that sink in.

All this is to say, moves on Oil and junk bonds ( JNK ) are pretty tightly coupled to broad indices, recently, and that this market is very fragile. Be careful out there.

*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. All provided information is my opinion, and should not be considered investment advice. Do not use this information to make any financial, or other choices.*
Correlation between crude oil and the stock market has almost been lockstep since early fall rollover 2018.
Extremely well done post. Thank you.
+1 Reply
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