Let's step back and look at the macro oil picture for a minute. Where is oil heading in the next 3 months and why?
YES - oil has had a great run up from $46 while the USD was dropping and stocks soaring.
YES - a minor drop is underway right now
YES - there's debate about the US shale impact and whether OPEC & non-OPEC producers like Russia can cooperate to raise prices further
BUT
1-the stock market consensus seems to be that's it's about to go into an extreme vertical bull market. This will drive price inflation and supports higher oil prices
2-there is no pressure on the USD to strengthen, but there is political pressure to weaken the USD to attract manufacturing.
3-oil is heading into a cluttered support zone at the $59-$61 range.
4-$61.50 is a 23.6% retracement (fits a light reversal in bull market), $58.50 is a 38.2% retracement (a decent wave 2 correction) in a strong uptrend.
4-it looks like the heating season will be longer than normal.
All of this drives me to say that oil is about to blast through the $66.50 ceiling and go back into uncharted territory. Looking at the multi-year picture below, I believe we have just been forming a solid base and the upward trend is just building. Certainly looks like wave 1 underway with a possible nominal wave 2 leading into a strong wave 3.
So- targeting new long entry at $58.50 to $61.50 range once I see a bullish pin bar signal or a solid base form on the daily charts. I am expecting the pin bar with a violent V shaped bottom and quick reversal back up. There have been a few bullish spikes that look a lot like producers shoving prices back up st key points. Time will tell of course....
YES - oil has had a great run up from $46 while the USD was dropping and stocks soaring.
YES - a minor drop is underway right now
YES - there's debate about the US shale impact and whether OPEC & non-OPEC producers like Russia can cooperate to raise prices further
BUT
1-the stock market consensus seems to be that's it's about to go into an extreme vertical bull market. This will drive price inflation and supports higher oil prices
2-there is no pressure on the USD to strengthen, but there is political pressure to weaken the USD to attract manufacturing.
3-oil is heading into a cluttered support zone at the $59-$61 range.
4-$61.50 is a 23.6% retracement (fits a light reversal in bull market), $58.50 is a 38.2% retracement (a decent wave 2 correction) in a strong uptrend.
4-it looks like the heating season will be longer than normal.
All of this drives me to say that oil is about to blast through the $66.50 ceiling and go back into uncharted territory. Looking at the multi-year picture below, I believe we have just been forming a solid base and the upward trend is just building. Certainly looks like wave 1 underway with a possible nominal wave 2 leading into a strong wave 3.
So- targeting new long entry at $58.50 to $61.50 range once I see a bullish pin bar signal or a solid base form on the daily charts. I am expecting the pin bar with a violent V shaped bottom and quick reversal back up. There have been a few bullish spikes that look a lot like producers shoving prices back up st key points. Time will tell of course....
Comment:
Getting closer to target range...
Comment:
Looking for aggressive bottom action or pin bar to setup long entry
Comment:
No bottom signs yet, well into my target long zone, waiting for price confirmation. The 4 hour chart shows the the drop is decelerating, but no bottom yet.
Comment:
Well into my long entry zone and a bullish pin bar but price action does not support a bottom here.
If prices fail below $58 then there won't be a bottom until close to $54. Looking at price action early next week but no entry at this point.
If prices fail below $58 then there won't be a bottom until close to $54. Looking at price action early next week but no entry at this point.
Comment:
Reversal inside my target box...but I think think this is a correction fakie (bull trap) due to an oversold condition and we are heading into the lower support level of $55. Set lower entry level at $55-$57
Comment:
Missedtge $59 entry but it looks like we are going to get another crack at a good entry on this reversal. Daily showing topping action which supports a drop back under $59 with the original downtrend still intact.
Even more apparent on the 4 hour chart. Looking for price to break $61.01 then challenge $59 quickly thereafter and possibly head towards $54. However, my money is on $59 holding firm and prices reversing up again to challenge new highs. Looking for a long entry likely near $58.50 to $59.50 on good bottoming price action.
Even more apparent on the 4 hour chart. Looking for price to break $61.01 then challenge $59 quickly thereafter and possibly head towards $54. However, my money is on $59 holding firm and prices reversing up again to challenge new highs. Looking for a long entry likely near $58.50 to $59.50 on good bottoming price action.
Comment:
Nice head & shoulders on the 4hr chart for a drop to my long entry range. Not trading the drop as the R/R is abysmal and there have been strong pops back up
