Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?

Note: With rollover in the coming days, this is an M/June chart:

Oil has seen quite the run over the past 2 weeks on report draws, Lybia fundamentals and geopolitical tensions with Syria - and with North Koreas news in the mix the Keynesian correlations are heating up. With a supply level being created at the previous Demand level 53.79/53.80 on the M/June chart; I am looking for a pullback and possible consolidation in the 51.74-53.30 Swap Zone; with an initial target of 51.45.

If Target 1 is reached I will reassess profit taking/moving the SL and/or another/continued short entry for TP2.

Short Entry June Contract: 53.30-53.80
-TP1: 51.45
-SL 54.78
-Decision Level 1: Decision
on SL/Profit taking/Entry for TP2

Good trading all!

Comments and questions are welcome!

Trade active

Comment:

The bottom of the swap zone on the chart is 51.75; I think it's possible we see one or two bounces at that level prior to reaching TP1

Comment:

In the chart I advised that breaching TP1 of 51.28 would result in a decision as to remain/add short; although the TP1 was reached, it happened much faster than I'd expected; those kinds of drops make it difficult to identify retrace levels, as such, I am going to close all short positions at 50.10. Prices may very well reach the 49.34 target price however, I feel that risk/reward is better in taking all profits and waiting for analysis on another entry. I believe there is a good chance that prices will bounce at the 49.8-50.10 level and with such a high volume drop prior to rollover, it's difficult to say whether we will retrace back up to the 52.2-52.4 level in the June contract or just continue dropping. I will add a chart to this analysis this weekend after the weekly close.

In summary; I will close all short positions if 50.10 level is reached on Friday 4/21; if this happens I will reassess and provide a new chart this weekend.

Good trading all!

Trade closed: target reached