Oil - Further Breakdown?

Oil has been on a rampage the past 6 weeks. I believe that we will see oil prices continue to consolidate in the 2015 weekly range of 44.8-54. Due to a significant volume drop below the 50.49 July 21, 2016 breakdown bar, I believe it will hold as resistance and repeat that July drop circled in yellow, reaching deeper for the 45.99 daily demand level. I will be looking to sell/add short positions at 50.05 and will be closing half positions at each target level and reassessing entry points to re-add as appropriate.

Short Entry: 50.05-50.49
SL: 50.95
TP1 48.70
TP2 47.40
TP3 45.99
Close Half Position at each TP and wait for re-add levels

Good trading all!

Comment:

Weekly chart showing 2 major ranges I believe we will see prices in during the coming months in a median range created in 2015

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/1/17WVlBRY.png

Trade active

Comment:

No updates, much of the same here; on today's bullish EIA report, prices continued to sell off after an interim bounce and I am expecting further selling into next week. One item to note; the supply/demand levels that I mark are just price inflections; I mark them as supply or demand as to their initial creation; I just realized that I accidentally marked 48.7 and 47.4 as supply; although at this point they are simply inflections; they were initially created as Demand levels.

Comment:

This is feeling like a possible pass through the 48.7 inflection; rather than taking partial profits I am advising to continue holding short or re-adding the shorts back in at current price or just happily holding those profits if that suits you; with the quick drop just below 48.7 I believe the market may be working on creating resistance at this level; I am hoping prices will continue down and test between 48-48.5 by end of the week.

Comment:

Target 1 and 2 reached as per the notes above i have taken partial profits at 47.4; I anticipate more selling this week but it's possible we see a run up during/after EIA first. More to come in the morning.

Good trading all!

Comment:

If you took partial or all profits at 47.4, great job, I am expecting prices to selloff again between 48.3 and 48.7; if not sooner. So I will adding short positions at 48.27, 48.37 and 48.53. The weekly chart above shows we have weekly inflections at 48.57 and 48.39 (Please let me know if you'd like an updated version of that weekly. As well, I have a bit messy but previous cluster view (circled on left) of my assumption selling at the 48.3-48.7 level, next seeing 46.5-46.81 level; hopefully prices will find a path down to 46 from there. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/j/Je5RF6Yl.png

Comment:

We did not see the bounce I thought we might get on EIA after yesterday's API report, looks like selling may continue and I've added the short positions back in at 47.70; looking for 45.6-46.81 level next.

Comment:

Sorry that should have read, looking for 46.5-46.81 level next.

Comment:

As per the chart above i am next looking for 46.5-46.81; It may be wise to take partial profits if this level is reached; although yes, I am still looking for the 46 level.

Comment:

Please see below a dynamic update to the original chart here; showing daily inflections at the 46.55 and 46.81 level which I believe price will take notice of. Still targeting down to the 45.99 level but we may see a possible bounce at the 46.55-46.81 zone and I'd advise taking partial profits there.

Comment:

Oops, here is the dynamic chart:

Comment:

Almost there

s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/q/Q0HrdE2l.png

Trade closed: target reached:

Target reached, good trading all; just an fyi; I have entered long at I believe prices are in a 45.62-50.37 range and the bottom was just hit within a penny but will wait for confirmation prior to posting a long chart.