smitheric1970

PRO
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Markets Allocation
98 % commodities 2 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CL1! 63% | 26 GC1! 4% | 2 CLM 4% | 2 CLK 4% | 2
smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Further Breakdown?
672 7 21
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Further Breakdown?

Oil has been on a rampage the past 6 weeks. I believe that we will see oil prices continue to consolidate in the 2015 weekly range of 44.8-54. Due to a significant volume drop below the 50.49 July 21, 2016 breakdown bar, I believe it will hold as resistance and repeat that July drop circled in yellow, reaching deeper for the 45.99 daily demand level. I will ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?
438 5 19
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?

Note: With rollover in the coming days, this is an M/June chart: Oil has seen quite the run over the past 2 weeks on report draws, Lybia fundamentals and geopolitical tensions with Syria - and with North Koreas news in the mix the Keynesian correlations are heating up. With a supply level being created at the previous Demand level 53.79/53.80 on the M/June ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLK2017, D, Short ,
CLK2017: Oil - Back to Supply
439 9 15
CLK2017, D Short
Oil - Back to Supply

In my 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?" chart, Prices reach their first Target Price but have rallied back to the original Supply level where I expect the selling to again occur. That analysis was on a continuous chart and the entry and bottom target is lined up with this K (May) chart view. With the DX relatively flat this price drop would require a couple weeks of ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLK2017, D, Short ,
CLK2017: Oil - Still Seeking a Bottom?
655 5 25
CLK2017, D Short
Oil - Still Seeking a Bottom?

My 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?' chart is active and still waiting on prices to reach its second target price but for those of you looking for a new entry or to add positions; I have closed out my front month J short contracts and will open/sell short K (May) futures contracts on Sunday/Monday; Prices are currently sandwiched between 2 daily demand exchanges and I am ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Oil - Demand
579 0 17
CL1!, D Long
Oil - Demand

i have been looking for oil prices in the short term to bottom at the 45.6-46.1 level; This chart is meant to provide Target Prices for my 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...' chart; please refer to that chart for more information on my overall view as this chart is intended only as a support chart for price targets. I will buy/open long positions at 46.10 and ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Meltdown - What Now?
1527 30 36
CL1!, D Short
Oil Meltdown - What Now?

It can be very daunting entering either long or short after such a massive drop; I have a downside target chart published already 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke'; however created this chart for new short entries in the even that we see a bit of a retrace. Today was quite the rate meltdown in oil; it seems that the pre-fomc game of chicken is over. Both Long ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO WHEATUSD, D, Long ,
WHEATUSD: Wheat - Demand Level
220 0 11
WHEATUSD, D Long
Wheat - Demand Level

This is purely a technical view as I am not familiar with wheat fundamentals (Ag fundamentalists please chime in I would love for this to be a learning experience for me); This is however my view of a potential technical validation of the Demand Exchange at 4.07 based on my general view of commodities/dx/oil over the next couple of months as I see a potential pop ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...
1082 4 40
CL1!, D Short
Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...

This is a my potential 8 week view of oil volatility. For a shorter term intra-week short entry, please see my 'Oil Supply - Continuous Chart', which provides a more detailed view of this charts short entry. I have been (im)patiently waiting for a breakdown in oil prices and to see a higher weekly low created prior to prices rallying again. I believe this low ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Supply - Continuous Chart - Supply Level
354 0 9
CL1!, D Short
Oil Supply - Continuous Chart - Supply Level

With a solid break below 53.30 on the April chart (see Oil - April Chart) I have an entry level for short positions here on the continuous chart. Following an increase in rate hike sentiment last week, oil not only broke down below the fast upthrust on Wednesday, it followed up by break hard below the upper supply level (53.51-53.89); I am now looking at 53.51 as ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLJ2017, D, Short ,
CLJ2017: Oil - April Chart - Supply Zone
353 3 8
CLJ2017, D Short
Oil - April Chart - Supply Zone

Prices traded in a tight range last week but have found strong resistance at the 54.6 level. So far the daily demand line has seen 3 bounces and will likely be tested again by Wednesday. Although prices rallied on the unexpected neutral reports last week I doubt we will see another week of the same; as well, the DX seems to have found some temporary footing and I ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLJ2017, D, Short ,
CLJ2017: Oil - July 2015 Comparison
411 1 18
CLJ2017, D Short
Oil - July 2015 Comparison

This chart is for observation purposes only. Currently prices are in an extended range and behavior is very similar to the May-July 2015 range and my hunch is distribution. I am only comparing the Preliminary and Secondary supply levels and lowest demand level. This is ONLY a technical comparison for observing price behavior. I mark supply/demand levels on ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil - Possible breakdown
440 6 15
CL1!, D Short
Oil - Possible breakdown

Oil has been sideways for 10 weeks but as the 200 MA is aligning with the next base level down at 48.5 level and as the soon to be front month April chart has been a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily, I anticipate we will see a 20 day down cycle 2/10-3/10. Target prices and details on the chart; I will be closing all shorts at TP 2, expecting a ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: Gold Weekly Supply
436 0 13
GC1!, D Short
Gold Weekly Supply

Fear seems to be in the air the past couple of weeks and gold has been responding; I believe this will be short lived and I am looking at the Oct/Nov 2016 Supply/Demand exchange level for a potential reversal. If prices find resistance at the 1238-1258 zone then I'll expect prices to retest the 1185 support level in the coming weeks and with a continuing strong ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #6
251 0 12
CL1!, D Short
Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #6

As this daily oil range continues to drag on I look to the Daily Supply levels shown on the left of the chart for clues. After getting two daily closes above the 53.51 Daily supply level; I think prices may now look to it as resistance and rally one last time; Above the 53.89 level I needed to look at the H (March) front month chart for higher daily supply levels ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLH2017, D, Short ,
CLH2017: Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #5
190 0 11
CLH2017, D Short
Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #5

Today, prices hit the H (March) chart daily demand line; Although I am still bearish looking for prices to test near the 48 and possibly 46 level, in the interim, I believe we may see prices validate resistance between 52.8 and 53.3. 52.82 demand level was created following the 12/14 daily close on the March contract. If prices see a daily close below 51.66 I will ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLH2017, D, Short ,
CLH2017: Oil - Higher Weekly Low support chart #4
318 1 17
CLH2017, D Short
Oil - Higher Weekly Low support chart #4

NOTE: this analysis is for the CLH7 (March) oil contract. Also, the path is hypothetical, targets/support/resistance are what matters. I believe that the 12/2 buying climax will hold as resistance. 1. Prices have been rejected at the daily BB midline and are below the daily 9 MA 2. TL of last two daily swing lows and the last daily selling climax ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, 240,
CL1!: Oil- Higher Weekly Low - intraweek support chart #3
374 5 16
CL1!, 240
Oil- Higher Weekly Low - intraweek support chart #3

Quite a reversal in prices today! Prices closed precisely on the midline of this weekly range today; which is neutral to the range; that being said... I am still biased to the short side; however, the DX which is generally inversely correlated to oil had a slight drop today and if that continues then oil may continue this rally. That being said, the EIA report ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, 240, Short ,
CL1!: Oil - Higher Weekly Low - intraweek support chart #2
459 6 16
CL1!, 240 Short
Oil - Higher Weekly Low - intraweek support chart #2

As prices are nearing last weeks intraweek support chart for my weekly level, Oil -3.82% - Higher Weekly Low? chart, i wanted to offer my thoughts on the next possible supply/demand levels. Today saw quite the drop and I am expecting a swing at the 51.2-51.6 level and will look for an approximately .3 retrace off of the leg down from 54.32 which would see prices ...

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