smitheric1970

PRO
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Markets Allocation
98 % commodities 2 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CL1! 59% | 29 CLM 6% | 3 GC1! 4% | 2 CLN 4% | 2
smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil?  Thank you Mr. Musk..
594 8 13
CL1!, D Short
Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil? Thank you Mr. Musk..

If you view my last published chart you can get a fairly clear view of the sideways consolidation that I'm expecting to continue in the coming weeks, in a 45.6-50.4 range, the main trading meat being 46.81-49.18. This range is based on major Supply and Demand (2009 Rally) levels during what I consider Fair Value oil prior to the US initiating QE following the ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, 240,
CL1!: Oil - Possible Sideways Range
2120 18 32
CL1!, 240
Oil - Possible Sideways Range

Following an extreme drop from the 53 level and clear demand in the 43-46 area, along with a weakening DX yet likely rate hikes later this year, ongoing oversupply, yet continued promises form OPEC to meet the agreed upon cuts, I just do not see a catalyst midterm for a break up or down form the current range. 45.62-50.37 is a range created in '09, a swap zone ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO GCV2017, D, Short ,
GCV2017: Gold Short CLV7
208 4 9
GCV2017, D Short
Gold Short CLV7

Between a weakening DX and the potential for a couple more rate hikes this year I am looking for one last push in Gold prior to a larger move down. Keep in mind this is an October contract GCV7 chart as this overall play may push into the next couple of months to play out. Enter Short: 1267-1270.7 SL: 1276.5 TP1: 1245.2 TP2: 1232.8 TP3: 1219.8 If playing ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLU2017, 240, Long ,
CLU2017: Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, Break
756 17 30
CLU2017, 240 Long
Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, Break

I want to say first that this is a risky entry; with oversupply and OPEC possibly disagreeing on continuing/extending/deepening cuts at next week's meeting Monday, we could see prices tumble into the 40.3-41.4 level; however, I think we may be in for some mid term boring 45-48 sideways price action for a while before any larger movements and that prices will take ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLN2017, D, Long ,
CLN2017: Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin Kick
946 6 28
CLN2017, D Long
Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin Kick

In a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLN2017, D, Long ,
CLN2017: Oil Long - Kitchen Sink Chart
850 23 21
CLN2017, D Long
Oil Long - Kitchen Sink Chart

I apologize for the messy chart; I'd prefer to publish a cleaner view but have a busy weekend so you'll get a glimpse inside my crazy charting mind with all of my notes... So, just zoom in to the TP area of the charity you're not interested in the rest! A couple of weeks ago I'd anticipated prices staying contained in the 45.6-50.4 daily trading range but last ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, 240, Long ,
CL1!: Oil - Rangebound 45.62-50.37
1236 18 28
CL1!, 240 Long
Oil - Rangebound 45.62-50.37

Oil has seen a weekly/daily range in place in 2008 and again created in 2015 that has repeated; between the now continued oversupply vs geopolitics; I believe we may see oil rangebound in this 45.62-50.37 zone; Entry Buy/Long: 45.62-46 SL: 44.8 TP1: 46.81 TP2: 48.00 TP3: 49.18 TP4 50.07 As per the norm, I will be taking partial profits at each Target Price ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Support Chart for 'Oil - Further Breakdown'
366 5 10
CLM2017, D Short
Support Chart for 'Oil - Further Breakdown'

I wanted to provide a dynamic support chart for my 'Oil - Further Breakdown Chart' as I am still looking for target level 3 on that chart at 45.99; and for new possible short entries. May 2 created a new daily price inflection at 48.08; that level and the most recent Demand Line have been crossed and closed below on the daily timeframe. I am now looking at ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Further Breakdown?
1265 12 31
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Further Breakdown?

Oil has been on a rampage the past 6 weeks. I believe that we will see oil prices continue to consolidate in the 2015 weekly range of 44.8-54. Due to a significant volume drop below the 50.49 July 21, 2016 breakdown bar, I believe it will hold as resistance and repeat that July drop circled in yellow, reaching deeper for the 45.99 daily demand level. I will ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?
478 5 19
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?

Note: With rollover in the coming days, this is an M/June chart: Oil has seen quite the run over the past 2 weeks on report draws, Lybia fundamentals and geopolitical tensions with Syria - and with North Koreas news in the mix the Keynesian correlations are heating up. With a supply level being created at the previous Demand level 53.79/53.80 on the M/June ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLK2017, D, Short ,
CLK2017: Oil - Back to Supply
453 9 16
CLK2017, D Short
Oil - Back to Supply

In my 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?" chart, Prices reach their first Target Price but have rallied back to the original Supply level where I expect the selling to again occur. That analysis was on a continuous chart and the entry and bottom target is lined up with this K (May) chart view. With the DX relatively flat this price drop would require a couple weeks of ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLK2017, D, Short ,
CLK2017: Oil - Still Seeking a Bottom?
673 5 25
CLK2017, D Short
Oil - Still Seeking a Bottom?

My 'Oil Meltdown - What Now?' chart is active and still waiting on prices to reach its second target price but for those of you looking for a new entry or to add positions; I have closed out my front month J short contracts and will open/sell short K (May) futures contracts on Sunday/Monday; Prices are currently sandwiched between 2 daily demand exchanges and I am ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Oil - Demand
600 0 17
CL1!, D Long
Oil - Demand

i have been looking for oil prices in the short term to bottom at the 45.6-46.1 level; This chart is meant to provide Target Prices for my 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...' chart; please refer to that chart for more information on my overall view as this chart is intended only as a support chart for price targets. I will buy/open long positions at 46.10 and ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Meltdown - What Now?
1548 30 36
CL1!, D Short
Oil Meltdown - What Now?

It can be very daunting entering either long or short after such a massive drop; I have a downside target chart published already 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke'; however created this chart for new short entries in the even that we see a bit of a retrace. Today was quite the rate meltdown in oil; it seems that the pre-fomc game of chicken is over. Both Long ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO WHEATUSD, D, Long ,
WHEATUSD: Wheat - Demand Level
268 0 11
WHEATUSD, D Long
Wheat - Demand Level

This is purely a technical view as I am not familiar with wheat fundamentals (Ag fundamentalists please chime in I would love for this to be a learning experience for me); This is however my view of a potential technical validation of the Demand Exchange at 4.07 based on my general view of commodities/dx/oil over the next couple of months as I see a potential pop ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...
1099 4 40
CL1!, D Short
Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...

This is a my potential 8 week view of oil volatility. For a shorter term intra-week short entry, please see my 'Oil Supply - Continuous Chart', which provides a more detailed view of this charts short entry. I have been (im)patiently waiting for a breakdown in oil prices and to see a higher weekly low created prior to prices rallying again. I believe this low ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Supply - Continuous Chart - Supply Level
375 0 9
CL1!, D Short
Oil Supply - Continuous Chart - Supply Level

With a solid break below 53.30 on the April chart (see Oil - April Chart) I have an entry level for short positions here on the continuous chart. Following an increase in rate hike sentiment last week, oil not only broke down below the fast upthrust on Wednesday, it followed up by break hard below the upper supply level (53.51-53.89); I am now looking at 53.51 as ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 PRO CLJ2017, D, Short ,
CLJ2017: Oil - April Chart - Supply Zone
363 3 8
CLJ2017, D Short
Oil - April Chart - Supply Zone

Prices traded in a tight range last week but have found strong resistance at the 54.6 level. So far the daily demand line has seen 3 bounces and will likely be tested again by Wednesday. Although prices rallied on the unexpected neutral reports last week I doubt we will see another week of the same; as well, the DX seems to have found some temporary footing and I ...

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