smitheric1970

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Markets Allocation
98 % commodities 2 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CL1! 61% | 35 CLM 5% | 3 CLK 5% | 3 GC1! 3% | 2
smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 240, Long ,
CL1!: Oil - Long to 70
709 10 20
CL1!, 240 Long
Oil - Long to 70

Last week prices initially showed signs of equilibrium between 64.6 and 65.8; however towards the end of the week it H4 chart is showing Higher Points of Demand and it appears that sellers are getting absorbed in that range. Based on last weeks close a Weekly Inflection has been created at 65.71 and if we see volume move above this level then I will look for my ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 240,
CL1!: Oil - Possible 69-74 Ranging
1556 7 26
CL1!, 240
Oil - Possible 69-74 Ranging

I have been waiting for prices to break up into a 69.37-74.14 range and based on current prices action along with 2014 broken support levels, believe we may see extended sideways action in this range, for several weeks, if prices do indeed break upwards. With the Brent/Crude spread in excess of 4 dollars we are still favoring exports; along with potential Iran ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 1D, Long ,
CL1!: Oil Long - 70 Level
667 8 15
CL1!, 1D Long
Oil Long - 70 Level

My apologies for the short summary, I will add more later, but here is my view in short. I believe the run up in oil will continue; potentially on a quick path to 68/69 I am advising a long entry at current price, initially looking for 68.18 and believe that prices will create higher support at the 68.18 level. Targeting 69.37 and 70.56 as profit levels. Long ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLK2018, 1D, Long ,
CLK2018: Oil Ranging: Long
279 8 9
CLK2018, 1D Long
Oil Ranging: Long

I believe that oil is currently in a 59.87-64.62 Daily Range and that consolidation in this range will continue through the May 1018 contract (CLK8). I am looking for 59.57-59.88 Demand and will be entering long advising SL below 58.98 (58.98 I'll show on a separate chart showing a higher demand structure forming during the long 2015 distribution range). First ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 240, Long ,
CL1!: Long Oil
2229 131 25
CL1!, 240 Long
Long Oil

As Oil is breaking into higher territory, I have gone to an older monthly range as outlined in my 'Oil - Bullish to 68.X ?' chart; this chart will serve to update my daily view. These daily ranges are clones, which are quartered; I have found that these clones of a 45.62-50.27 range that I've published a few times to remain significant; so I look at high volume ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: Oil Bullish to 68.X  ?
267 13 7
CL1!, D Long
Oil Bullish to 68.X ?

This is an observation only chart, showing a monthly range that I'm looking at, and how I view the monthly/daily inflections/Signs of Strenfth on smaller timeframes. Note: I am currently long, added on yesterday's close and I do believe that current prices are currently at good 'buy' level (59.61-59.77) for a long play of 400-800 ticks targeting 64.6-68.9; if ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Long - Top Of Daily Range
902 14 23
CL1!, D Short
Oil Long - Top Of Daily Range

I am looking for oil's 2014 weekly inflection of 56.52 to hold as support. Daily range: 55.12-59.87; details on chart. Entry 56.52-56.9 zone Target 59.26-59.87 SL 56.29

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLX2017, D, Short ,
CLX2017: Oil - Short back to 46
430 5 17
CLX2017, D Short
Oil - Short back to 46

Please refer to my "Oil - Possible Sideways Range" chart as I believe that although prices have breached the top, that we may see another run back near the bottom of the range. 48-48.6 level may initially see strength but if the next couple of EIA reports are bearish I believe that the glut madness will recycle in the coming months and that our current 50.X ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil?  Thank you Mr. Musk..
794 8 16
CL1!, D Short
Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil? Thank you Mr. Musk..

If you view my last published chart you can get a fairly clear view of the sideways consolidation that I'm expecting to continue in the coming weeks, in a 45.6-50.4 range, the main trading meat being 46.81-49.18. This range is based on major Supply and Demand (2009 Rally) levels during what I consider Fair Value oil prior to the US initiating QE following the ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 240,
CL1!: Oil - Possible Sideways Range
2256 18 33
CL1!, 240
Oil - Possible Sideways Range

Following an extreme drop from the 53 level and clear demand in the 43-46 area, along with a weakening DX yet likely rate hikes later this year, ongoing oversupply, yet continued promises form OPEC to meet the agreed upon cuts, I just do not see a catalyst midterm for a break up or down form the current range. 45.62-50.37 is a range created in '09, a swap zone ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 GCV2017, D, Short ,
GCV2017: Gold Short CLV7
221 4 8
GCV2017, D Short
Gold Short CLV7

Between a weakening DX and the potential for a couple more rate hikes this year I am looking for one last push in Gold prior to a larger move down. Keep in mind this is an October contract GCV7 chart as this overall play may push into the next couple of months to play out. Enter Short: 1267-1270.7 SL: 1276.5 TP1: 1245.2 TP2: 1232.8 TP3: 1219.8 If playing ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLU2017, 240, Long ,
CLU2017: Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, Break
774 17 30
CLU2017, 240 Long
Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, Break

I want to say first that this is a risky entry; with oversupply and OPEC possibly disagreeing on continuing/extending/deepening cuts at next week's meeting Monday, we could see prices tumble into the 40.3-41.4 level; however, I think we may be in for some mid term boring 45-48 sideways price action for a while before any larger movements and that prices will take ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLN2017, D, Long ,
CLN2017: Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin Kick
956 6 27
CLN2017, D Long
Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin Kick

In a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLN2017, D, Long ,
CLN2017: Oil Long - Kitchen Sink Chart
855 23 20
CLN2017, D Long
Oil Long - Kitchen Sink Chart

I apologize for the messy chart; I'd prefer to publish a cleaner view but have a busy weekend so you'll get a glimpse inside my crazy charting mind with all of my notes... So, just zoom in to the TP area of the charity you're not interested in the rest! A couple of weeks ago I'd anticipated prices staying contained in the 45.6-50.4 daily trading range but last ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CL1!, 240, Long ,
CL1!: Oil - Rangebound 45.62-50.37
1240 18 27
CL1!, 240 Long
Oil - Rangebound 45.62-50.37

Oil has seen a weekly/daily range in place in 2008 and again created in 2015 that has repeated; between the now continued oversupply vs geopolitics; I believe we may see oil rangebound in this 45.62-50.37 zone; Entry Buy/Long: 45.62-46 SL: 44.8 TP1: 46.81 TP2: 48.00 TP3: 49.18 TP4 50.07 As per the norm, I will be taking partial profits at each Target Price ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Support Chart for 'Oil - Further Breakdown'
369 5 9
CLM2017, D Short
Support Chart for 'Oil - Further Breakdown'

I wanted to provide a dynamic support chart for my 'Oil - Further Breakdown Chart' as I am still looking for target level 3 on that chart at 45.99; and for new possible short entries. May 2 created a new daily price inflection at 48.08; that level and the most recent Demand Line have been crossed and closed below on the daily timeframe. I am now looking at ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Further Breakdown?
1276 12 30
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Further Breakdown?

Oil has been on a rampage the past 6 weeks. I believe that we will see oil prices continue to consolidate in the 2015 weekly range of 44.8-54. Due to a significant volume drop below the 50.49 July 21, 2016 breakdown bar, I believe it will hold as resistance and repeat that July drop circled in yellow, reaching deeper for the 45.99 daily demand level. I will ...

smitheric1970 smitheric1970 CLM2017, D, Short ,
CLM2017: Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?
483 5 18
CLM2017, D Short
Oil - Swap Zone Consolidation?

Note: With rollover in the coming days, this is an M/June chart: Oil has seen quite the run over the past 2 weeks on report draws, Lybia fundamentals and geopolitical tensions with Syria - and with North Koreas news in the mix the Keynesian correlations are heating up. With a supply level being created at the previous Demand level 53.79/53.80 on the M/June ...

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