smitheric1970
Long

Oil - Hormuz - Demand up to 80?

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Based on potential issues with Iran involving the Hormuz Strait I just published and quickly cancelled a chart looking for a run up to 76.5-77.5 and then a pullback to 74. But then thought - if this issue continues to unfold then prices may just continue to grind up over the next month without much in the way of prices pulling back. I am highly advising taking partial or even full profits at the 76.5-77.5 area in the even that Hormuz becomes a non-isse early in the week, but if prices hover at the 77 level, it may be a sign of a continued bull run and i believe a move toward 80-81 is very possible.

Enter Long: 73.82-74.12
TP1: 76.49
TP2: 77.67
TP3: 78.86
TP4: 80.00

I am advising re-adding/building long positions on a pullback from TP2 and TP3 (see chart for re-add levels).

Questions and comments are welcome, good trading all!


Trade active: This trade is active!
Comment: Monthly:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

Weekly:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

Long Term Supply/Demand created:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

Current on Daily Chart:https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/x/XR5ChCtw.png

Good trading all!
Comment: SAME LEVELS Current on Daily chart:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Trade closed: stop reached: Well,looks like the tariff situation created heavier supply than what EIA could bring on a nice draw today. Big selloff today unfortunately, back to the drawing board.

Comments

We have a great chance to make all the way up one more time!!!
Reply
@NYNick, Agreed - based on current action; I'm wondering if this old idea may be coming to fruition:
Reply
What's the likeliness that this last leg up was an exhaustion move?
Reply
smitheric1970 mwooddowney
@mwooddowney, Very possible but if you see that last chart above, the last leg up is holding above previous Supply - and Thursday's drop is holding; Friday, Monday, Today continuing to creep up looking like sellers are getting absorbed. Also, prices seem to be taking strong notice of this long term trend line from 2015 - unable to close below it, I had been waiting for the 74.12 level for months, to short it. It wasn't until Thursday of last week seeing price hold above that 2015 Trend Line and forming a nice arch (that tend to pop) that I completely changed my view. I think at a minimum we retest the upper short term trend line at the .25 mark of this next range up at 75.3-75.6 - but if prices swing above that line then I believe we break above 76.5 (midpoint of the range) and that it may hold as interim support and see prices swing to 78-81 level for a bit.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/gEWdqRGb.png
Reply
mwooddowney smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, The way I see it, that upper fib level has been significant resistance for some time. While I do think that we see 80 sooner rather than later, a lot of price consensuses are focused around a 66-68 bbl average for the year. Unless we get a snap of euphoria, does this really have the steam to push much higher given the fundamental backdrop?
Reply
mwooddowney mwooddowney
Red line is my average short price fyi
Reply
smitheric1970 mwooddowney
@mwooddowney, Who knows, fundamentals are a messy mixed bag. But I do like your 50% mark, and believe that 68.18-69.37 will be a really nice Demand area when prices do drop. But for now, it just seems that the sellers are getting absorbed. Check out the Long term Monthly/Weekly/Daily charts above.
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smitheric1970 mwooddowney
@mwooddowney, A daily close above the 74.25 Daily Inflection would be a very bullish signal for me.
Reply
smitheric1970 mwooddowney
@mwooddowney, Great call!!!!!
Reply
mwooddowney smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, It was all luck.. And lots of experience getting those trades wrong! I'm not sure what's going to happen next week but once I get a chance to sit infront of the charts with a good coffee this weekend I'll send you what I find.
Reply
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