CryptoTA4U

One possible path for CLVS

NASDAQ:CLVS   CLOVIS ONCOLOGY INC
A few thoughts on CLVS . May not pan out, but this is a bullish scenario.
Reasons the bull scenario could play out from a technical standpoint:
1. Move up to $99 was a clear 5 waves. It looks to have recently completed the ABC correction into a perfect golden pocket 61.8 to 65% retracement.
2. Wave C was an ending diagonal . CLVS has broken out of the diagonal to the upside after a throw over to the downside (a common occurrence in diagonals).
3. Wave 1 up of the new trend has already retraced about 50%. If it gets to the $53-54 range soon, that will make a 61.8% retracement of wave 1 up.

Aggressive traders might be looking to buy the drop to the $53 range hoping the above scenario is correct.
More conservative traders might wait for it to break the high of wave 1 around $63 for confirmation of a new uptrend.

I have no position at this time, but will be watching closely and may enter a position in the future.

Obviously, the bear scenario (which does not really need much chart elaboration) would be that the current downward movement continues to the lower trendline , possibly testing the low $40's in the near future.



Mar 27
Trade active:

So far the projection is playing out as expected. CLVS has fallen to 53.67 today. I am looking for it to stay above ~$52.50 for the bull thesis to stay intact. If it can bounce off the trend line that it broke through (which it will engage right just above $52.50) then it has a good chance of moving on to put in wave 3. If wave 3 is a 1:1.618 extension of wave 1, we could see CLVS headed to $71+ in the weeks/months ahead. However, if we see CLVS drop below 51.30 or so, then we'll have a wave failure and it will have re-entered the descending channel. At that point I'll be looking to short it. Currently I have no position as I monitor the next steps over the next few days.
Mar 28
Trade active:
Today we have closed right at our target for determining the next move in CLVS. CLVS has settled right on the previous upper trend line, so a fall through this would give us a nice initial target of about $46.80's (recent low). On bull side, if CLVS can make a decent bounce here, we can hope this will be the start of wave 3 up which would be confirmed with a break over $63.
Apr 02
Trade active:
As one can see, the bear scenario we described above appears to be playing out. The fall back across the trend line and back into the channel was a good indicator that a short position (buying puts, selling calls or simply shorting the stock) was a good trade from a risk/rewards ratio to enter (at around $52). Unfortunately, I was not able to monitor this today due to work obligations, but I hope some were able to gain something from this idea. I plan to continue to monitor CLVS to see if it gets to $46.80 again as expected now, and to monitor for any signs of a bullish reversal.
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