CLX2023
NEAR TERM:: NEUTRAL / SLIGHTLY BEARISH
VOLUME STRUCTURE - CLX23
So far, for the year of 2023, 70% of the trading volume for the November contract has occurred between $95 & $89, with the highest volume around $91, which is the price of neutrality and market balance.
PRICE ACTION - CLX23
WTI strongly rejected prices above $92, and sold hard after reaching the current 2023 high of $95.
This week ended with WTI settling right near its highest volume price around $91, the price of neutrality and market balance.
OPEN INTEREST - CLX23
Open Interest (OI) has decreased for the first time since July, reducing the net-quantity of open contracts by about 32,000 contracts.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (COT) - CLX23
This week's commitments by large institutional speculative traders will not be published by the CFTC until next week on Friday. However, last week's commitments will be published shortly today. I will be watching for any reduction in long positions from 442.288k and increase in short positions from 113.862k by institutional speculators.
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS - CLX23
- Seasonal Demand Destruction (Winter)
- China economy showing weakness
- Global economy showing weakness
- Less travel demand
- High jet fuel & gasoline prices hitting spot market
- Continued USD strength / Expensive Petrodollar
- FOMC is still slightly hawkish on interest rates, supporting a strong USD.
- OPEC+ Meeting :: October 5
I WILL BE UPDATING THIS NEAR-TERM NEUTRAL/BEARISH OUTLOOK ONCE PRICE MOVES AWAY FROM ITS HIGHEST VOLUME PRICE AROUNT $91, THE RPICE OF NEUTRALITY AND MARKET BALANCE.
EXPECT MORE SOON.
THANK YOU.