norok

Comcast Pullback

Long
NASDAQ:CMCSA   Comcast Corporation
NASDAQ:CMCSA pulled back today past the 50% retracement I was watching but still holding the Daily Ichimoku cloud . I already own a stake in the shares as part of my "Broadband rollout" investment thesis I began last June. Interestingly another stock NASDAQ:COMM which is also in that basket is up bigly today to a new All Time High.

I added to my shares position for the thesis and long term investment portfolio. It's a good company that should be around in 10 years which is my foremost consideration for investment. I also took short term options to play the run up to earnings on 4/29.
Comment: Trade is working "so far" as one on my social media says... Very good confirmation for the daily bar to close ABOVE the 50% retracement.
"Be to others the person you needed to meet 10 years ago"

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Twitter: @noroktrade

Comments

Hi @norok, Thank you for your analysis and videos - they are very helpful!
I have been learning about the Ichimoku Cloud strategy and I am curious about the duration of the 50% retracement. Is it usually 0.5 times the actual run up or does it vary by a lot.
+1 Reply
norok vinyth
@vinyth, I find that it can vary.

I know that some traders based a lot of their analysis on time. W.D. Gann was the master that really established timing as just important as price. I have studied his works but nothing has definitively stuck out to me and I've applied to my trading.

What I find is that past levels of price action like confirming highs/lows are the additions to the 50% that I use and I am confident work. If you combine the 50% retracement with the ichimoku cloud you have a built-in timing element but this can oftentimes be very rigid if you use the same ichimoku settings. However, I think there is value in keeping things simple and consistent when it comes to pattern recognition so I do not try to curve fit my ichimoku any more than the classic settings.

In this case the 50% is not exactly where the price dipped to but it does look like it may hold today at that 50% level. Where price got to was the past highs of the last several months which is confirmation. Finally, prices still well above the ichimoku cloud which gives me a broad timing to watch this move play out rather than a concrete number like 0.5. These are the things that I consider in this trade in particular.

Tl;dr I take price action elements as guidance but do not try to make a rigid rule (unless it has to do with risk)
+1 Reply
Looks like a great earnings play. How do plan to play this one? Jump ship, straddle, white knuckles?
Reply
norok GiveMeSkinny4Sho
@GiveMeSkinny4Sho, The way I play earnings MOVES is BEFORE earnings. I then sell the option before the announcement no matter what. I do not play flip-a-coin. The highest probability for profit is capturing the volatility RISE prior to earnings.
Reply
@norok, For sure, no way to manage 50/50 odds. I'm not gonna lie though, sometimes I hold one contract just to remind myself it's okay to be intentionally stupid now and then.
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