Very Bullish near term, possible star in coming years
Possible Elliot Wave formation, next catalyst could be the fifth point of the impulse!
Fundamentals are golden:
Institutional ownership has increased over last period, with no sells.
Float is ~15 million shares, short% is 3.45, Beta is 2.54, NASDAQ year end estimate is >8$/share.
CNSP is a clinical stage biotech that deals with Central Nervous System cancers, with goals for more than just cancer. It's clinical stage, meaning basic research is minimum. It looks like it has it's drug (Berubicin), and is just going to go forward with this in everything they can. There is strength to this, low overhead costs from basic research and drug pipeline development, making it an attractive target for acquisition or just commercialization on its own. However, after this company gets through clinical trials and gets to a deserved price, future growth outlook is low.
The drug Berubicin has 0 hits in scientific literature searches. My hypothesis is that this is a derivative made from a chemical library synthesis project on a doxorubicin/anthracycline base. This class of drugs have been used in cancer therapies for time immemorial, not excelling at specificity, but extending life-spans and increasing 5 year survival odds when combined with surgery or radiation therapy. The drug was likely a hit on tiered library screens, moving through pre-clinical trials, all the way through phase 1.
In phase 1 it had a 44% success rate! Phase 1 is merely for safety, not efficacy, meaning the drug dosages could have been far from optimal. This gives me huge confidence in positive phase 2, especially against competitors. The current "gold standard" for chemotherapeutic treatment of GBM (glioblastoma) is Temozolomide (TMZ), which has a 22-37% increase in 1 YEAR SURVIVAL RATES, or overall survival increase of 2 MONTHS. While the exact mechanism's of TMZ and Berubicin are very different, the strategy is induction of DNA damage, which has been a highly attractive target for pharmaceuticals in cancer research.
Without scientific research in journals, it is impossible to know the exact target of Berubicin, and it makes me uncomfortable about its odds of success in a large Phase 3/4 clinical trial, but I suspect Phase 2 will go well. Either of these is unimportant for the time being as there are 2 large catalysts on the horizon.
CNSP is going to an analyst conference today through Friday, meaning a fresh price evaluation could be in the near term. On top of this, their Phase 2 clinical trial that was approved begins officially March 31st. Matching the beat of other biotechs, I predict a PR stating they dosed their first patient, with a solid reaction from that.
I am bullish in the near term, will rely on phase 2 trial news before I make a long term prediction. Should get a sizable profit margin in the coming weeks. For reference, TMZ is the gold standard for GBM, leading brand Temodar had 423 million dollars in sales as of 2013 (looking for more current market info). If CNSP has something better, especially with the clinical trials working in combination with radioactive and surgery therapies, then I can see them taking over a large chunk of the market without a significantly larger benefit in survival periods. If the 44% holds true, CNSP could take over the GBM market, and their push into more CNS diseases/cancers that could benefit from Berubicin are only going to compound on this.
As always, please leave a comment with suggestions! I am looking to continue these types of ideas, and would love criticism to improve! Remember, I am in no way an analyst or financial advisor, I am just some schmuck looking to share my personal theories. Please do your own research, if only just to double check that I am not lying!
Fundamentals are golden:
Institutional ownership has increased over last period, with no sells.
Float is ~15 million shares, short% is 3.45, Beta is 2.54, NASDAQ year end estimate is >8$/share.
CNSP is a clinical stage biotech that deals with Central Nervous System cancers, with goals for more than just cancer. It's clinical stage, meaning basic research is minimum. It looks like it has it's drug (Berubicin), and is just going to go forward with this in everything they can. There is strength to this, low overhead costs from basic research and drug pipeline development, making it an attractive target for acquisition or just commercialization on its own. However, after this company gets through clinical trials and gets to a deserved price, future growth outlook is low.
The drug Berubicin has 0 hits in scientific literature searches. My hypothesis is that this is a derivative made from a chemical library synthesis project on a doxorubicin/anthracycline base. This class of drugs have been used in cancer therapies for time immemorial, not excelling at specificity, but extending life-spans and increasing 5 year survival odds when combined with surgery or radiation therapy. The drug was likely a hit on tiered library screens, moving through pre-clinical trials, all the way through phase 1.
In phase 1 it had a 44% success rate! Phase 1 is merely for safety, not efficacy, meaning the drug dosages could have been far from optimal. This gives me huge confidence in positive phase 2, especially against competitors. The current "gold standard" for chemotherapeutic treatment of GBM (glioblastoma) is Temozolomide (TMZ), which has a 22-37% increase in 1 YEAR SURVIVAL RATES, or overall survival increase of 2 MONTHS. While the exact mechanism's of TMZ and Berubicin are very different, the strategy is induction of DNA damage, which has been a highly attractive target for pharmaceuticals in cancer research.
Without scientific research in journals, it is impossible to know the exact target of Berubicin, and it makes me uncomfortable about its odds of success in a large Phase 3/4 clinical trial, but I suspect Phase 2 will go well. Either of these is unimportant for the time being as there are 2 large catalysts on the horizon.
CNSP is going to an analyst conference today through Friday, meaning a fresh price evaluation could be in the near term. On top of this, their Phase 2 clinical trial that was approved begins officially March 31st. Matching the beat of other biotechs, I predict a PR stating they dosed their first patient, with a solid reaction from that.
I am bullish in the near term, will rely on phase 2 trial news before I make a long term prediction. Should get a sizable profit margin in the coming weeks. For reference, TMZ is the gold standard for GBM, leading brand Temodar had 423 million dollars in sales as of 2013 (looking for more current market info). If CNSP has something better, especially with the clinical trials working in combination with radioactive and surgery therapies, then I can see them taking over a large chunk of the market without a significantly larger benefit in survival periods. If the 44% holds true, CNSP could take over the GBM market, and their push into more CNS diseases/cancers that could benefit from Berubicin are only going to compound on this.
As always, please leave a comment with suggestions! I am looking to continue these types of ideas, and would love criticism to improve! Remember, I am in no way an analyst or financial advisor, I am just some schmuck looking to share my personal theories. Please do your own research, if only just to double check that I am not lying!
Comment:
So clearly I was wrong! That third elliot wave fizzled, but the good news is that this isn't dead. It's a true long, solid choice to avoid short term capital gains tax, or just put on the back burner and get price alerts out side of this <3$ channel. This will be incremental in gain, they have a long road ahead, but if they stay the course it should work out great- as long as they focus on additive therapies.