MikeMM

Coinbase Wyckoff Accumulation. SPRING in play?

Long
MikeMM Updated   
NASDAQ:COIN   Coinbase Global, Inc
We will find out shortly.

The bear case: Coin goes to zero, after the US authorities pull on some threads and we unwind some massive criminal activity between the inner dealings of DCG - GENESIS - COINBASE - SILVERGATE - FTX - etc etc etc....

The Bull case: The bear case above is the overhanging Fear Uncertainty And doubt which is being amplified by the market maker so that he can scoop the final remaining shares. Within days we should see the beginning of a rally which should be relentless in its pursuit of reaching 115 dollars per share. Many will take this opportunity to sell at break even, or a slight loss from previous purchases (the remaining supply is absorbed by the market maker) Once this final supply is absorbed, we will see the market drift higher. People will ask, how was coinbase ever valued at 32 dollars per share??? how did the market dislocate so much and provide the opportunity for a 10x in such a short period of time?

The market often over corrects just as much as it overshoots, providing great opportunity. Is this a case in which this has happened? or is coin really going to zero?

We must dig deeper to understand. However, I am not here to do your homework. So do it yourself.

Here are some hints though.

USDC
LSD
SUBSCRIPTIONS

Furthermore we must admit that coinbase has:
Pricing power
Trust
Assets backed 1-1

I, Like my perceived market maker, have been accumulating at any price below 70 dollars, I would thus argue the market maker may not in fact be a single person, but rather a collective of people like myself thinking similarly. We take the risk when few others will, and for this we stand to profit more than usual. Or go broke.
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Break below green wedge would indicate something is wrong and ZERO is in play.
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I like that coinbase competitors are either going bankrupt, or under intense scrutiny. Coinbase is the squeeqiest clean exchange on the planet. In my humble opinion it is extremely unlikely the govt shuts it down through enforcement. They would be much more inclined to go for coinbases shady competitors like binance, and leave coinbase to operate transparently in the USA rule of law.

ANYWAY the word of the night is

CONSOLIDATION.
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So, the weekend price action of crypto has been very bullish.

Are we going to see some gaps tomorrow?
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gap up and 16% today, so far... only just begun IMO.
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Coin is struggling today after an initial 15% to the upside it has given a lot back, and maybe more. But what I am seeing is a RELATIVE STRENGTH compared to the rest of the market.

Im not going anywhere. Im still here.
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Volume has dried up after the initial move, steadily declining.

I am not a real market whale, but when I play MMORPG video games I tend to be a whale in the markets.

After I clear an orderbook I let the dust settle, before clearing once again.

I believe that is what the market maker is doing right now.
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Now that people finally acknowledge CPI topped in june 2022... (talk about a late consensus...)

we can see this baby soar.

In my opinion, 150 is the BARE MINIMUM target for this baby. thats still over 3x from here so if i can buy shares between then and now with my income, I will buy as long as we are below 70, as I have been for quite a while now.
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To put things in perspective, were at %7.1 inflation, likely to be lower tomorrow.

last time inflation was %7.1, coinbase was close to 300 per share.
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13% increase today. Looking good. Shorts going to start feeling the pain.

I wonder if Jim Chanos has closed his short yet?
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Another 1.4% up today...

I mean, that is quite impressive. in most cases after going up so much you get a pull back. I know many bears who thought we were going to give some of the prior 2 days back, if not all of it.

Strong day :)
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So far the crypto market is suggesting we open gap up tomorrow. supposing we hold these over night gains.
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42 million shares out of 150 million shares sold short.

what could possibly go wrong?

LOL
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Youd think they could close quickly, (3 days) under the current daily volume, but at the first sign of weakness in the short theory, all speculative traders will join the party, gobbling up much of the daily volume so it makes covering shorts more difficult.

What a mess for shorts.

They have been increasing not decreasing thus far, so this has not even begun...
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Visualization of shorts getting pwned

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Another interesting thought... if volume dries up to what it was at the beginning of 2022, then shorts actually need 10+ days to cover. (they only need 3 days in current vol assuming no1 else is buyying????? loool k)

I dont think many of the short sellers here are professionals, I would argue that they are retail sucked in by the imminent recession narrative. They do not quite understand what they have gotten themselves into.

Tomorrow is the final day of trading before the long weekend, and I would argue that letting a short ride through the long weekend, in a market (crypto) which is 24/7, would be extremely risky.

For that reason I believe tomorrow a lot of shorts will cover. but lets be clear, Daily trading volume will not permit them all to exit the market, and the vast majority will be taking that weekend risk.

They better hope bitcoin doesn't have a 40-50% weekend rally, cause that would be a sight to see after the long weekend :o

In my experience with bitcoin, when it starts moving, it moves quick...
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8.5% today. Ill take it, but im really looking forward to the 20-60% days.
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Just watch bitcoin, that determines everything. Coinbase to outpreform for the next month or two In My Opinion. If bitcoin goes down coinbase will go down equally. f bitcoin goes up coinbase will go up 2x more.

That being said, Today looks great, if we close positive it is in stark contrast to last year where every friday was a dump.
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We had a great day, and bitcoin has continued that day after hours.

I will update through the weekend when I see fit.

Interesting note that I have heard friends tell me coinbase trading has gone down periodically, that happens when there is a complete overload on trading volume.

Guess their fees revenue will be pretty healthy :P

I thought the bear narrative is that no1 wanted to pay high fees at coinbase?

I got news for you. I pay reasonable fees at coinbase when I trade, because I know my money or crypto will not go missing, and is even insured.

The primary reason for depressed fee revenue was retail goes to sleep in deep bear markets, only to come alive again at the excitement of a renewed bull run.
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So we have gapped up slightly, again.

This move is quite slow right now, relative to how i thought it would go.

Makes me believe we move all at once in a couple days to catch up to where we should be.

AKA UP.
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The last time I saw price action similar to this, was right before ATVI was acquired by MSFT...

Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me?
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I do not expect to go lower than we have today.

Howeevver. If we do then I will put some fresh cash in around 42.

Im not going to hold my breath for that though.
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Just a scribble, very speculative. Will be leaning towards this as a bias though.
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Bitcoin seems to have chosen the weekend to go higher.

Sooner or later were going to get a gap up monday for coinbase, these shorts are sweating buckets RN.

Make them pay for your shares! they sold something they do not own! how dare they!
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The more I study the charts the more bullish I become.

Bitcoin (which you should look at to guide you on coinbase success)

has spent an anomalous amount of time under the 200 weekly SMA. We generally dont spend more than a daily wick below it., yet we have spent several months under it. More bitcoin has changed hands over these months in this accumulation range than ever before in bitcoins history.

The spring has thus been loaded, and each time we re-emerge above this line bitcoin has a minimum 100% rally. in most cases much higher %.

This puts bitcoin price around 50k... Which puts coinbase price above 200....

Now suppose we get a repeat of 2019, where it rose over 300% above the 200sma after testing it, or the covid crash it rose over 1500% after testing it...

Anyway, fireworks should start going off soon.
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Going to 219 per share is only a 289% increase from the market makers average price shown by the volume profile on the far left (circled in green)

This is not an unusual move aver a 95% decline... and would provide sufficient fomo to unload his accumulated shares to the general population.


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Slowly

Then suddenly.
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I am thinking we smash the 200SMA (white moving average)

I like this momentum.

The Supertrend on the daily has turned green and given no reason to sell, yet.

RSI is not even overbought, its primed.

When will people notice?

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The more shares they borrow to sell here, the longer the consolidation, the larger the move up.

I like quick money, and would prefer we move quickly, but if I must wait I am willing to take a higher reward as compensation.

All good.
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Bear forces are out in droves today. Michael Burry has summoned his followers!
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I am glad coinbase gave people a low risk entry today and put in a higher low.

Not much to add right now, bitcoin looks great so i presume the rally continues.

Interesting that the Canadians raised interest rates by .25 today and announced that will be the final hike, if inflation continues to trend down.

Canada has frontrun USA FED in the past. Did they do it again?
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Short interest increased to 43,891,979 shares as of today.

The squeeze hasnt even begun...
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What does a 2.4 billion dollar buy candle look like on a 12b market cap?
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^^^ Joking. but not.

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When I see a price artificially stalled like it has been, I can do nothing more than think about how fast this coiled spring will rise.

It should have been a nice stair climb up, but now it will be a rocket ship up to compensate for the time wasted here.

Jim Chanos is going to get squeezed simultaneously on Coinbase AND Tesla.
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Okay so we tested my channel, i didnt want to post it till I was more confident that it existed.

I see nothing but strength, Pure Upward Accumulation.

Next time we test the topside of this channel we are into a whole lot of liquidations (25k range)

Coinbase actually has a similar channel, but right now all focus needs to be on Bitcoin. As it leads the way, then the rest follow.

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I believe next time we test the top of the channel we break through and go parabolic. (more parabolic than now)
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Hey jimmmmmyyyy, were commmmmminggggg.

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Coin LOG breakout of red trendline (not perfectly fit) but looks sexy.

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The backtest of breakout?

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The longer I have to wait, the higher the price I expect.

Taking profits at 115 zone has been an idea, but now I am leaning toward taking first profit at 190-200.

The reasoning is simple, the delay to 115 is caused by short sellers which eventually have to rebuy shares. I anticipated they would give in sooner, but instead it seems they have chosen to DOUBLE DOWN.

Time is money.
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We have closed above the 200 daily.


At some point I would expect us to pull back and test the 200, but that could take some time. And by that time, the 200 will be much higher than currently
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I personally do not believe there are enough shares for sale below 190 dollars for shorts to cover.

I think they find the liquidity they need up there.
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Updated trajectory based on my imagination.

Shorts are kind of complacent right now, they haven't even begun the unwind After today I don't think they have much choice.

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wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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The volume has not even picked up on the daily time frame. All short squeezes of the past have significant volume increases.

Are you waking up yet Anon?
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Q: AM I too late?

A: No, but its certainly riskier to buy now than at 32 dollars. One would have to be prepared for "shakeouts" and mentally endure 20% or more downturns in the midst of the squeeze. Chances are you will be underwater for a day or two, can you handle that?
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Money goes where its treated best. And that is why it goes to Coinbase.
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A .236 correction is probably the single largest sign of strength I have seen since we began. Just made everyone bearish only to trap new suicidal weekend shorters.

I dont doubt jim chanos has exited his short already, but his followers dont know that. they keep doubling down it seems.

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The DXY has had one hell of a candle here.

Markets are shrugging it off though.

That speaks volumes.

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Coinbase shorts have for the most part, not begun covering. Squeeze has not even begun, as expected.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/coinbas...
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I dont like M shapes, I would assume that Monday we visit either the 786 or the 886.

Perhaps we ignore my caution, and go straight up, but if we do reach these lower retraces then I will probably add more shares to my stack.

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Alternatively, if you scratch out that anomaly (happened due to a reaction on BlackRock news)

Then we may actually be in the "absorption of remaining supply" stage. Once we clear here, then straight line up.
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Coinbase continues to impress, Higher highs and higher lows.

After an asset moves 170% in a month, you need to expect 20-30% pullbacks, as I stated earlier in my updates.

This was a great example of that. Fortunately, I think the pullback is over.

Could we go lower? of course. anything is possible. But probable? EHhhh.... not really.

2023 has a theme so far. "don't get shaken out"

Its hard, nobody said it would be easy.
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Just a random thought.

wouldn't it be cool if we had a decentralized uncensorable CHATGPT?

I think its inevitable. I don't know what coin makes it happen, or when... but when it comes to decentralized applications, I cant imagine any better use case.
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