Coinbase Wyckoff Accumulation. SPRING in play?

MikeMM Updated   
NASDAQ:COIN   Coinbase Global
We will find out shortly.

The bear case: Coin goes to zero, after the US authorities pull on some threads and we unwind some massive criminal activity between the inner dealings of DCG - GENESIS - COINBASE - SILVERGATE - FTX - etc etc etc....

The Bull case: The bear case above is the overhanging Fear Uncertainty And doubt which is being amplified by the market maker so that he can scoop the final remaining shares. Within days we should see the beginning of a rally which should be relentless in its pursuit of reaching 115 dollars per share. Many will take this opportunity to sell at break even, or a slight loss from previous purchases (the remaining supply is absorbed by the market maker) Once this final supply is absorbed, we will see the market drift higher. People will ask, how was coinbase ever valued at 32 dollars per share??? how did the market dislocate so much and provide the opportunity for a 10x in such a short period of time?

The market often over corrects just as much as it overshoots, providing great opportunity. Is this a case in which this has happened? or is coin really going to zero?

We must dig deeper to understand. However, I am not here to do your homework. So do it yourself.

Here are some hints though.


Furthermore we must admit that coinbase has:
Pricing power
Assets backed 1-1

I, Like my perceived market maker, have been accumulating at any price below 70 dollars, I would thus argue the market maker may not in fact be a single person, but rather a collective of people like myself thinking similarly. We take the risk when few others will, and for this we stand to profit more than usual. Or go broke.
Break below green wedge would indicate something is wrong and ZERO is in play.
I like that coinbase competitors are either going bankrupt, or under intense scrutiny. Coinbase is the squeeqiest clean exchange on the planet. In my humble opinion it is extremely unlikely the govt shuts it down through enforcement. They would be much more inclined to go for coinbases shady competitors like binance, and leave coinbase to operate transparently in the USA rule of law.

ANYWAY the word of the night is

So, the weekend price action of crypto has been very bullish.

Are we going to see some gaps tomorrow?
gap up and 16% today, so far... only just begun IMO.
Coin is struggling today after an initial 15% to the upside it has given a lot back, and maybe more. But what I am seeing is a RELATIVE STRENGTH compared to the rest of the market.

Im not going anywhere. Im still here.
Volume has dried up after the initial move, steadily declining.

I am not a real market whale, but when I play MMORPG video games I tend to be a whale in the markets.

After I clear an orderbook I let the dust settle, before clearing once again.

I believe that is what the market maker is doing right now.
Now that people finally acknowledge CPI topped in june 2022... (talk about a late consensus...)

we can see this baby soar.

In my opinion, 150 is the BARE MINIMUM target for this baby. thats still over 3x from here so if i can buy shares between then and now with my income, I will buy as long as we are below 70, as I have been for quite a while now.
To put things in perspective, were at %7.1 inflation, likely to be lower tomorrow.

last time inflation was %7.1, coinbase was close to 300 per share.
13% increase today. Looking good. Shorts going to start feeling the pain.

I wonder if Jim Chanos has closed his short yet?
Another 1.4% up today...

I mean, that is quite impressive. in most cases after going up so much you get a pull back. I know many bears who thought we were going to give some of the prior 2 days back, if not all of it.

Strong day :)
So far the crypto market is suggesting we open gap up tomorrow. supposing we hold these over night gains.
42 million shares out of 150 million shares sold short.

what could possibly go wrong?

Youd think they could close quickly, (3 days) under the current daily volume, but at the first sign of weakness in the short theory, all speculative traders will join the party, gobbling up much of the daily volume so it makes covering shorts more difficult.

What a mess for shorts.

They have been increasing not decreasing thus far, so this has not even begun...
Visualization of shorts getting pwned

Another interesting thought... if volume dries up to what it was at the beginning of 2022, then shorts actually need 10+ days to cover. (they only need 3 days in current vol assuming no1 else is buyying????? loool k)

I dont think many of the short sellers here are professionals, I would argue that they are retail sucked in by the imminent recession narrative. They do not quite understand what they have gotten themselves into.

Tomorrow is the final day of trading before the long weekend, and I would argue that letting a short ride through the long weekend, in a market (crypto) which is 24/7, would be extremely risky.

For that reason I believe tomorrow a lot of shorts will cover. but lets be clear, Daily trading volume will not permit them all to exit the market, and the vast majority will be taking that weekend risk.

They better hope bitcoin doesn't have a 40-50% weekend rally, cause that would be a sight to see after the long weekend :o

In my experience with bitcoin, when it starts moving, it moves quick...
8.5% today. Ill take it, but im really looking forward to the 20-60% days.
Just watch bitcoin, that determines everything. Coinbase to outpreform for the next month or two In My Opinion. If bitcoin goes down coinbase will go down equally. f bitcoin goes up coinbase will go up 2x more.

That being said, Today looks great, if we close positive it is in stark contrast to last year where every friday was a dump.
We had a great day, and bitcoin has continued that day after hours.

I will update through the weekend when I see fit.

Interesting note that I have heard friends tell me coinbase trading has gone down periodically, that happens when there is a complete overload on trading volume.

Guess their fees revenue will be pretty healthy :P

I thought the bear narrative is that no1 wanted to pay high fees at coinbase?

I got news for you. I pay reasonable fees at coinbase when I trade, because I know my money or crypto will not go missing, and is even insured.

The primary reason for depressed fee revenue was retail goes to sleep in deep bear markets, only to come alive again at the excitement of a renewed bull run.
So we have gapped up slightly, again.

This move is quite slow right now, relative to how i thought it would go.

Makes me believe we move all at once in a couple days to catch up to where we should be.

The last time I saw price action similar to this, was right before ATVI was acquired by MSFT...

Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me?
I do not expect to go lower than we have today.

Howeevver. If we do then I will put some fresh cash in around 42.

Im not going to hold my breath for that though.
Just a scribble, very speculative. Will be leaning towards this as a bias though.
Bitcoin seems to have chosen the weekend to go higher.

Sooner or later were going to get a gap up monday for coinbase, these shorts are sweating buckets RN.

Make them pay for your shares! they sold something they do not own! how dare they!
The more I study the charts the more bullish I become.

Bitcoin (which you should look at to guide you on coinbase success)

has spent an anomalous amount of time under the 200 weekly SMA. We generally dont spend more than a daily wick below it., yet we have spent several months under it. More bitcoin has changed hands over these months in this accumulation range than ever before in bitcoins history.

The spring has thus been loaded, and each time we re-emerge above this line bitcoin has a minimum 100% rally. in most cases much higher %.

This puts bitcoin price around 50k... Which puts coinbase price above 200....

Now suppose we get a repeat of 2019, where it rose over 300% above the 200sma after testing it, or the covid crash it rose over 1500% after testing it...

Anyway, fireworks should start going off soon.
Going to 219 per share is only a 289% increase from the market makers average price shown by the volume profile on the far left (circled in green)

This is not an unusual move aver a 95% decline... and would provide sufficient fomo to unload his accumulated shares to the general population.


Then suddenly.
I am thinking we smash the 200SMA (white moving average)

I like this momentum.

The Supertrend on the daily has turned green and given no reason to sell, yet.

RSI is not even overbought, its primed.

When will people notice?

The more shares they borrow to sell here, the longer the consolidation, the larger the move up.

I like quick money, and would prefer we move quickly, but if I must wait I am willing to take a higher reward as compensation.

All good.
Bear forces are out in droves today. Michael Burry has summoned his followers!
I am glad coinbase gave people a low risk entry today and put in a higher low.

Not much to add right now, bitcoin looks great so i presume the rally continues.

Interesting that the Canadians raised interest rates by .25 today and announced that will be the final hike, if inflation continues to trend down.

Canada has frontrun USA FED in the past. Did they do it again?
Short interest increased to 43,891,979 shares as of today.

The squeeze hasnt even begun...
What does a 2.4 billion dollar buy candle look like on a 12b market cap?
^^^ Joking. but not.

When I see a price artificially stalled like it has been, I can do nothing more than think about how fast this coiled spring will rise.

It should have been a nice stair climb up, but now it will be a rocket ship up to compensate for the time wasted here.

Jim Chanos is going to get squeezed simultaneously on Coinbase AND Tesla.
Okay so we tested my channel, i didnt want to post it till I was more confident that it existed.

I see nothing but strength, Pure Upward Accumulation.

Next time we test the topside of this channel we are into a whole lot of liquidations (25k range)

Coinbase actually has a similar channel, but right now all focus needs to be on Bitcoin. As it leads the way, then the rest follow.

I believe next time we test the top of the channel we break through and go parabolic. (more parabolic than now)
Hey jimmmmmyyyy, were commmmmminggggg.

Coin LOG breakout of red trendline (not perfectly fit) but looks sexy.

The backtest of breakout?

The longer I have to wait, the higher the price I expect.

Taking profits at 115 zone has been an idea, but now I am leaning toward taking first profit at 190-200.

The reasoning is simple, the delay to 115 is caused by short sellers which eventually have to rebuy shares. I anticipated they would give in sooner, but instead it seems they have chosen to DOUBLE DOWN.

Time is money.
We have closed above the 200 daily.

At some point I would expect us to pull back and test the 200, but that could take some time. And by that time, the 200 will be much higher than currently
I personally do not believe there are enough shares for sale below 190 dollars for shorts to cover.

I think they find the liquidity they need up there.
Updated trajectory based on my imagination.

Shorts are kind of complacent right now, they haven't even begun the unwind After today I don't think they have much choice.

The volume has not even picked up on the daily time frame. All short squeezes of the past have significant volume increases.

Are you waking up yet Anon?
Q: AM I too late?

A: No, but its certainly riskier to buy now than at 32 dollars. One would have to be prepared for "shakeouts" and mentally endure 20% or more downturns in the midst of the squeeze. Chances are you will be underwater for a day or two, can you handle that?
Money goes where its treated best. And that is why it goes to Coinbase.
A .236 correction is probably the single largest sign of strength I have seen since we began. Just made everyone bearish only to trap new suicidal weekend shorters.

I dont doubt jim chanos has exited his short already, but his followers dont know that. they keep doubling down it seems.

The DXY has had one hell of a candle here.

Markets are shrugging it off though.

That speaks volumes.

Coinbase shorts have for the most part, not begun covering. Squeeze has not even begun, as expected.

I dont like M shapes, I would assume that Monday we visit either the 786 or the 886.

Perhaps we ignore my caution, and go straight up, but if we do reach these lower retraces then I will probably add more shares to my stack.

Alternatively, if you scratch out that anomaly (happened due to a reaction on BlackRock news)

Then we may actually be in the "absorption of remaining supply" stage. Once we clear here, then straight line up.
Coinbase continues to impress, Higher highs and higher lows.

After an asset moves 170% in a month, you need to expect 20-30% pullbacks, as I stated earlier in my updates.

This was a great example of that. Fortunately, I think the pullback is over.

Could we go lower? of course. anything is possible. But probable? EHhhh.... not really.

2023 has a theme so far. "don't get shaken out"

Its hard, nobody said it would be easy.
Just a random thought.

wouldn't it be cool if we had a decentralized uncensorable CHATGPT?

I think its inevitable. I don't know what coin makes it happen, or when... but when it comes to decentralized applications, I cant imagine any better use case.
It is so clean. It belongs in a text book if this marks up to 200-300 dollars.

Seems like a stop loss hunt, removing stop loss. very risky, but I didn't come this far for the Market maker to shake me out.
200k more shares to buy back that were shorted today.

Im waiting....

1.5 million shares to buy back that were shorted over the past few days.

I am waiting, Dan.

2.5 million, sorry.

Tick tock tick tock

I am happy with my decision to cancel my stoploss, we are now back above it and judging by the overnight crypto activity, we should be well above it again tomorrow and the rest of the month.
After Biden's state of the union speech, I cannot help but believe we will have more asset inflation (Stocks, Bitcoin, etc) and even housing, if history is any guide.

"CPI" has been coming down for awhile now, I am not one to believe that just because a person has more money, that they will bid the price of bananas up. If the prices of bananas go up, I believe it is due to some other reason not relating to money supply. For example, supply chain shortage, or drought.

However, If Money supply increases, I do think that Limited supply assets get bid up. It seems that has happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future.

When Biden spoke about printing and spending a whole lot of money. I don't understand the "bear" case for assets. Why would one want to hold dollars?

Just a thought.
So about an hour ago, The CEO, Brain Armstrong went to twitter and revealed that there are RUMOURS of the SEC shutting down STAKING for USA RETAIL TRADERS.

I thought, Oh.... Fuck...

Anyway, Ethereum doesnt care.

Coinbase didn't move down after hours.

Is this a sign of strength? or upon verification, we nuke down?

But yeah heres eth, looks fine.

Not much to say guys. I still hold.

Brian Armstrong has weeks to squeeze these shorts and refused to do it.

Instead he perpetuated the SEC RUMOR.

I dont see any short covering till we reach 100+ dollars.

it is highly likely the short position increased significantly today.

Have to go to the hospital for family now, will update later.
All I gotta say, right here.

How can the SEC even come out now and ban staking? they would be admitting they caused market manipulation and insider trading by having this information leak ahead of time.
Anyway, sorry guys, I cant provide technical analysis against insider trading. I presume regular market conditions. When the SHORTS know that GARY GENSLER has their back, theres no way you can make them cover, they will just press their bet indefinitely.
Coin has a -30% drawdown.

THEN it is announced kraken had to shut down staking due to SEC.

Something reeks here, terribly bad reekyness.
Kraken is no longer allowed to stake, ever again.

Gemini is dead.

Coinbase truly is the only game in town.

Hopefully their legal team is right on this (look above at the twitter post)
I am still bullish havent sold.

many charts have this pullback before an even greater rise.

Here is one.

Nothing much to update here, people paralyzed by fear. Not buying the dip and even selling shares at a loss.

I have lived through this many times now. I have felt these feelings. Luckily, Each time I just held.

My biggest regret in 2021 was that in 2019 I had only held, Rather than accumulate as much as possible. (bitcoin)

This time around I am learning from my prior mistakes, and continue to accumulate as much as possible, by limiting my lifestyle, and maximizing my income.

Will everything work out? Nobody knows for sure. I speculate that Coinbase has a big role to play in the future of crypto. If I am right, then buying anywhere down here will make me look like a genius when were trading at 1000+ per share.

If there was no FUD, if everything looked great, then there would be no opportunity to buy at these prices. Embrace the situation, IMO.

Watching the value of my portfolio as coinbase stock ranges between 115 dollars and 30 dollars is unnerving. Why don't I sell when it gets to 115? 100? etc? Well, that is because I believe one of these times, we just smash through. And I don't feel like taking that gamble of selling anywhere down here. because once we breakout, we never come back.
It felt "safe" to buy bitcoin at the top.

Tesla bought, Microstrategy bought, superbowl ads, countries adopting, nobody could see it failing. It was almost as if everyone felt invincible.

Yet, it was the worst time to buy, when it seemed the easiest to buy.
Thankfully, Price has begun its ascent to reality.

I added on this dip at 57 dollars.

Rather than hoping I can time the intermediate tops by selling, ill just wait for the sell off to increase my bet.

The idea of selling and losing valuable shares because the price keeps going up is a scary thought. That is why I do not play that game.
Oh, and luckily for us, the short interest has likely increased dramatically due to the FUD.

Squeeze has not yet begun.
I bought GameStop around 18th of May 2020, and the squeeze didn't happen till January 2021.

Patience Pays.

Coinbase is very different from GameStop and its short interest is significantly lower.

Assuming there was no short interest at all, I would still expect price to move towards 500+ per share by 2025, simply due to an overall Crypto bull run that appears to be on 4 year cycles.

This is a fundamental play, with a potential to make bad people lose money along the way. (Dan, Bill)

It is important to remember that this is not a dead company like AMC, GME, BBBY, etc. It should not be considered a lottery ticket.

Once it has been accepted that Coinbase is a fundamental play, all worry fades away and patience becomes easy.

Perhaps we move up gradually, in a stair like manner, or perhaps we go sideways for another year, then one day move up 1000%, The destination is known, the path is unknown.
Bitcoin refusing to give back any gains is massively bullish. And poetic justice, for the people who refused to buy it at its weakest moments (15.5k)
It is how it should be.
The red highlighted line is the .382 fib retracement. This was the minimum expected retracement on a correction.
There were so many people on the sidelines, that it never even made it there. Everyone was hoping for a chance to buy under 20k, they didn't even get close.

Coinbase should follow bitcoin to the moon. I am 90% sure of it.
I shouldn't be talking about short squeezes so much because I believe the bull case brings us higher even without the squeeze element.

But I cant help the enjoyment I get when I think of short sellers sweating tonight.

Imagine the Pain that those parasites are about to endure if this pushes past 87 dollars? nobody is going to want to sell their shares, I really truly don't know where they will find shares to buy... New short sellers may step in and provide some liquidity, but then you're just passing the problem off to someone else.

Oh and I am thinking like this because Bitcoin is currently breaking out of its entire Wyckoff accumulation range, I just have to assume coinbase does next. For coinbase, a breakout of that range is above 115 dollars.
They tried so hard...

this is how I know the rally has a ways to go. The sentiment is clear - The majority are MAD that bitcoin has revived from the "dead"

Many continue the attempted FADE. Bitcoin just says "fuck you, im 25k now"

but yeah look at this picture from this morning, big volume sell off (fake shares i presume) that now need to be bought back.

I have been asked a couple times lately, When take profit?

I dont know yet to be honest. I wing that.

I could give a target today, that I would have to change tomorrow, it really depends on sentiment, and I cant predict that, i need to feel it.

On top of sentiment, I need something in the chart to tell me its time.

I dont have any clear indication this is even remotely close to over. That could change very quickly though.
This is the coinbase vs Bitcoin chart.

I would consider taking some profit when coinbase reaches the first yellow circle. This is what I would argue is the fair value of coinbase VS bitcoin.

If you include data from the PRE-IPO on FTX, then you would know that coinbase all time high was actually 620 dollars. and if we still had access to this data, then you could see when we reach the 2nd yellow circle, we would be "over valued" vs bitcoin.

I do expect to eventually become overvalued to bitcoin, but that would likely be late in the cycle.

They just don't learn... Stop selling fake shares please.

I rareeeeely look for cup and handle patterns, this just jumped out at me today. Measured move is to the 236 Fib

Okay wtf. The handle of the large cup and handle has a cup and handle.

I do not want to be like this guy, I do not want to be viewed as an oracle.

I know I can be wrong, and that being said There must be a point at which I admit I am wrong.

That date is March 1. If by March 1 Coinbase is not at 125 dollars, then The entire Idea has been nullified and I will have to reconsider what is going on here. Not necessarily sell, but just simply figure out what is actually going on.

Make sure you don't let ANYONE tell you they know for sure something is going to happen.

I apologize if i ever come off as if i speak in certainties, even in my most optimistic and confident moments, I still have a sliver of doubt.

All it takes is ONE trader, to make the market move against you.

I am still very confident in this move. but I would grow very concerned if coinbase were to trade below 56 dollars.
The reason for the march 1 deadline, is that after every bullish monthly engulfing candle that brings bitcoin out of its bear market, it is followed up by a 2nd month of at least 50% gain.

That brings bitcoin to mid 30's by end of this month.

Coinbase IMO should belong atleast at 125 dollars if this happens, and that matches with the charts.
Interesting post by gameoftrades, as well.

Coinbase moving over 100% in 8 trading days will bring a lot of attention LOL
First 3 pictures are the past bullish engulfing, plus the 2nd.

the final picture is where were at now.

Coinbase continues to be suppressed by short sellers, as bitcoin threatens 25k again, ready to smash through.

I have contacted a re-agent regarding the sale of my house. If I can get an offer and immediate closing date while Coinbase is still suppressed, I am going to use all of the funds to buy more shares.

The stock price is criminally low.

Going to make these guys pay for their greed.
Retested the 200 day SMA as support.

"market participants" do not appear to agree where this stock should go, based on the past 2 daily doji candles.

The controversy on this stock boggles my mind, it seems so clear to me. The greater the opposition, the larger the reward if I am right.
Also, check out these patterns I have highlighted. It appears someone is stepping in each time to hold the price down, and they use the same pattern over and over.

The RSI is even a spitting image.

If I were to guess, this will be the Make or Break it week.
It is a bloodbath out there today, but Coinbase is holding on with relative strength, hovering around barely green to barely red on the day.

Just an observation.
Coinbase had a MTU of 8.3 million users, out of 110 million verified users. based on their recent earnings.

At first glance you would be like... Fuck... that's bad.

Lets think about that for a second.

8.3 million users participated at the recent lows of the bear market. out of that, im sure some sold at a loss, rather than bought.

so lets assume 5% bought.

5% of retail participated in buying the recent lows of the market...

Not everyone can buy the bottom. This is a great sign if you ask me.

When Coinbase gets 90m MTU then we can start talking about taking some money off the table.
Jim Chanos and Dan (forget his last name) made their rounds on CNBC to re-enforce their bear case. Zero valid arguments made, but anyway.

Just fucking send this thing higher already.

Coinbase released BASE.

A trusted layer 2 solution was needed so badly, many people opted out of moving to layer 2 since there was a lack of trust in other protocols.

Everything looks good

When bids?
Wow. I woke up today with 180 notifications for this chart... If youre new here, what borught you here?? leave a comment below! genuinely curious.

Anyway, looks like another higher low... even though everything is shitting the bed today.

And interestingly, this is where the S&P should bounce if it is going to... Right on the 200Day SMA

I like to watch sentiment on twitter.

Its interesting to see that nothing has changed, yet everyone turned bearish.

We are at support, this is the literal worst time to turn bearish.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the move continue onward and upward. Even the bulls are bears right now. Market could punish this, and should.
2023, Long when Michael Burry tweets, short when I get excited.

if you're a trader that's prob the best bet.
Not sure what it means, but there are a LOT of people liking this idea. Is this a signal that were all going to get rekt? or that I am on to something which is quite obvious?
I feel like the market forces are trying to bore me out of my position.

I have seen a couple bulls capitulate due to time. I know the feeling.

I had a due date as well. It was supposed to be tomorrow.

But now I see many others have that idea as well.

I'm going to walk the other way, For better or for worse.

Nothing concerns me in the chart. I have nothing to post today as nothing changed, just the time.
DXY is breaking out of a rising wedge. This is good I think?

Coinbase has many subpoenas from the SEC, which in my opinion will have a positive outcome. Once the SEC agrees that Coinbase is complaint, it will give investors a green light.

Interestingly this is what happened with Bernie Madoff. The SEC investigations into him did not find the fraud, and instead they ended up green lighting investors with their stamp of compliance/approval.

Not that Coinbase is anything like Bernie, but the stamp of approval after investigation can be very powerful.

As for Coinbases only remaining competitor, BINANCE, it would appear they are under intense scrutiny, with Coinbase even delisting the Binance USD.

I do not doubt that the industry is going to consolidate, as many other shady exchanges get taken down and users move to trusted players, like COINBASE. The only other exchange I would trust my money on is KRAKEN. But I cant buy kraken stock.
As for the chart, Coinbase has broken the downtrend line any way that I can draw it. I believe the correction is over, and were headed to 110-125 next.

Bitcoin is playing along as well. Looks like a recent break out of a falling wedge.

We bounced right where the volume profile suggest we would (red line)

The sheer amount of time spent at these levels makes me believe that we either break down here, and make new lows, or we break up here, and move much higher than many would anticipate.

42,000 per bitcoin does not seem like a far stretch.

Short interest sitting at 20.18%, 33,220,000 shares sold short.

Wake me up when under 5% short interest.
Large falling wedge, Small falling wedge :)

Oh look, The DXY is in reverse!

Put call ratio a little high, why so bearish folks?

Inflation peaked June 2022... why would it stop going down?

Was obvious if you looked at the RSI and macd. (posted this last year as well)

Bears were wrong on the entire "bear market" it should be erased to be honest. Send everything higher...

Woke up late today, Find that the price of coin down by 10% and I am not in the least bit worried. no supports broken, and only moved due to the s&p500 breaking below the 200 day moving average for a moment. People must have really panicked.

This is what we want to see in the early stages. If it were easy, everyone would stick around. We need to shake out the weak. When we become rich everyone will say were lucky, but in fact, we endured the psychological warfare during the transition of bear market to bull market.

I take a look around at sentiment and it appears to be worse than even the absolute lows, If we were in late stages of the rally, then people would be in "buy the dip" mode. Instead they are terrified and hold PTSD issues from 2022. They run away and call for crypto to go to zero.

Still so early. I wont get shaken out.
Look I even re-adjusted my falling wedge imaginary lines to suit my bias. Simple retest.

Coinbase departs from silvergate - thankfully. This was a lingering concern I had. I am now relieved.
Bitcoin's drop last night had no effect on coinbase. Because Coinbase has some ground to gain vs Bitcoin.

Either bitcoin goes down and coinbase stays the same, or bitcoin goes up and coinbase goes up more.

It is that simple.

I would update this but literally nothing has changed.
Coinbase holding up remarkably well. as everything around it collapses. SPX, BTC, Altcoins, Banks, ehh.
My guess on coinbase drop today would be SVB attempting to liquidate its assets to meet withdraws. Coinbase was one of its assets if i remember correctly.

Anyway forced selling has historically been a good time to buy. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE of course.
USDC has been holding its peg so far, suggesting to me that they had very limited exposure, or no exposure at all to SVB.

I am hoping, but also suspect, that they were smart enough to pull their money from SVB before today. 42b of withdrawals occurred last night. I think that the remaining customers are likely the smaller dumber money. Could be wrong, but USDC showed it is quick to act when promptly leaving Silvergate.

A hit to USDC is a hit to Coinbase. If this hit occurs, there was really no way of predicting it. If you were psychic then you should of shorted SVB.

But yeah not going to speculate too much more on this, waiting on answers.


Silicon Valley Bank is one of six banking partners Circle uses for managing the ~25% portion of USDC reserves held in cash. While we await clarity on how the FDIC receivership of SVB will impact its depositors, Circle & USDC continue to operate normally.
In my speculative mind, I will assume that Circle gets back a good portion of their reserves from SVB.

Then perhaps Coinbase could plug the hole, in return for even more interest in USDC? Or anyone else willing to make a small investment.

Also, the hole could be plugged by USDC income in one quarter, if they are only down like 500Mill
Lets be real though, If not now, Then when?

Banks collapsing, the exact environment bitcoin was born in, to solve.

If not now, then when?
Banks going under, bailouts being discussed... literally cannot think of a better time to shine for crypto, specifically bitcoin, and coinbase.
If you have any doubt about Bitcoin being in a bull market now, after the bounce we just had trapping bears... Then there is no help for you.

That being said... Coinbase criminally undervalued, by a large margin. revenue and profits are going to go through the roof.

Frankly, I am tired of waiting to be rich. But what other choice do I have? I must wait until "ThE jOb Is DoNe"

The suppression of the stock price through manipulative market making practices would have many shaken out or bored by now. But my thesis for holding the stock only grows stronger with the current economic situation.
Just look at that capitulation volume!

The original idea was for a 300 dollar coinbase. However, now that we have spent such an excessive time consolidating I am moving that target to 500. Minimum.

This is going to be more explosive than tesla's rise. All due to disbelief.

The longer the Consolidation the larger the move.
"Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve." — Satoshi Nakamoto
Shoutout to www.tradingview.com/u/RocketFuel20/ for calling the bottom of each correction.

Everyone bow your heads to this beast. Check for him in the comment section!
For real though, Shorts about to get blown the fuck out.
I am expecting something like this for Bitcoin. So whatever price Coinbase gets to by the time bitcoin is 42-48k, I would think its a good time to take profits.

This could be a "Sell in may and go away"

Take a couple months to re-asses after that. I would imagine up more, but finding a good re-entry would be the plan.

This could happen sooner, because bitcoin has hidden bullish divergence on RSI, and the Stoch RSI is oversold turning up. My timeframe in the prior picture is my base case, sooner would be a pleasant suprise.

Whole stock market is red. Coinbase the sole survivor and thriver today.
Coinbase is the safest bank in the world, if regulators just Fuck off. They are the only risk it faces.
S&P500 does look poised to make new lows, but who knows.

Even if it did, I would not expect coinbase to make new lows.

If I were to take a wild guess, 41 dollars is the absolute floor price for this stock.
Waiting on that big fat liquidity injection. JPOW to the rescue soon.
Anyone scared of coinbase regulatory future could read this. Good precedent to be setting.

If this week closes where it is at for bitcoin, we have a 3 rising methods caandlestick pattern...

Coin just had a Daily Bullish crossover on the MACD with first bar of Positive MOMO.

Short sellers in DisBULLief.

So much room to run here. Weekly in full swing, Daily in beginning stages, 4 hour as well.
Wow its ugly out there. But coinbase looks great. Love to see it.
This is the most hated rally LOL.
For up to date info you can follow my twitter.

as of the 10th, 21% of shares sold short.


Interesting week ahead.
How can coinbase get to 160 bucks?

Multiple decompressions
Nasdaq goes up
Bitcoin goes up
White swan

Pick any, if even a single one happens, were there.
Not very high volume today,

If I were to take a guess, people stopped shorting today.

Next the voluntary short covering on medium volume

Then High volume short liquidations.
Coinbase suffered from a stock market multiple compression. (rate hikes did this?)

Coinbase suffered from the cryptocurrency bear market

Coinbase suffered from predatory short selling, being categorized as an AMC or GME...

The way I see it is this:

If the effects of any the above revert to the mean, The stock price would rally.

The effects of 2 or 3 reverting to the mean, would be multiplicative, synergistic.
The bears can hope for something like this, Although, The MACD and RSI are telling a different story. Not such a strong bear case.

Bears, doesn't this look bearish?

Exited all markets.
Looking for this now.

Back to accumulation at lower levels.
Re-entered coin at 63.
If the bullish structure wants to hold. This is a pretty darn ideal place to do it.

The way I am seeing things, is that coinbase does not enjoy going below the 200 moving average.

I am not sure it will go below 60 dollars again, which Is why i prematurely pulled the trigger and bought at 63 yesterday. I could have waited for today, but 61 dollars was not a guarantee.

Anyway, After selling at 81 and rebuying at 63 my stack has increased significantly. These are shares that the short sellers will not be able to buy back for some time.

I was expecting lower levels initially, but with the way that Bitcoin and the rest of the stock market has held up, I cannot deny the raging bull.

Coinbase at its current levels is a gift, in my opinion.

I am looking to test the 120 dollar level this month.
the 1 hour timeframe indicators shows weaking sell pressure, and looks like a reversal to the upside is in the very early stages.

after we shift to positive momentum on the 1 hour we can expect the 4 hour and daily to start showing these signs as well.

On the 4 hour the momentum on the macd has started trending down. I put a vertical blue line each time this has happened in the recent past, which shows it is generally the bottom for the time being.
Bitcoin dominance appears to have topped, and is in a rectangle consolidation. which generally tend to be trend continuation patterns.

This would imply that "ALT" season is right around the corner, and that's money making time for coinbase. As retail loves ALTS.

I do expect that bitcoin dominance will go down forever, as digital assets become the new norm.

The price to buy one coinbase share is 120 dollars, the market maker hasnt figured it out yet, so you can buy them for half price right now. SOunds good. Continuing to purchase shares at the expense of Daniel.
For those who disagree with the prior comment, they simply do not understand that the market maker is nothing more than a quote of what they believe the stock to be worth at any given moment. In the case here, the market maker is a bear, and admitted to this on national television. Since we know he is wrong, naturally we will buy his shares when they are on sale.
Blowing out a market maker is the most profitable trade I can think of.
Bears are FUKT
There will not be enough shares to buy back. Mark my words, Daniel.
Coinbase has 10x users as 2018, and 10x revenue.

But stock price is only 2x?

SMD dan.
If COIN gapped to 120 tomorrow I wouldn't even sell.

Looking for 200 if im honest with myself.
Expecting at minimum 8 more days of up only before a cool off.

Blow Out The Market Maker Of Coinbase.

Get Dan Fired.
Some people confused of who dan is.

Waiting for this to go to zerrrrroooo

It is only a matter of time before the shorts lose all of their money, and then the government officials they have been bribing to put pressure on the industry stop siding with them.

But hey, thats Muricaaaaa
When we break the artificial resistance line, next stop is the artificial resistance line just above it!

Silly market maker! do you think I think these are actually resistance??

Some would call this consolidation a bull flag.

Thats just another term for "idiots who are selling to soon"

Everyone and their mom just shorted 71 dollars, and the price didn't even give them an inch.
I marked how many 15 minute bars are spent at local tops recently.

no more than 4 bars.

were at 11 bars, and haven't broken down.

Not a top.

Does RIOT foreshadow Coinbase future?

Yellow highlighter = comparable area

Coinbase shorts so fucking greedy that they haven't even exited after getting trapped.

They deserve what happens next.

Such a fucking disappointment. I cant ignore the price action. Out 70.

Cant even fill a gap with a good cpi print? w.e

Money market fund for at least a month. I'm leaving with big profits and a lot of frustration.

What a market...
I am a sucker for wedges, and I cant un-see this. Maybe another leg up to top of wedge, but this looking iffy on bitcoin.

I cant lay this shitcoin down im back in slightly lower than where I left.

The breakdown should of occurred already if it was going to happen. especially after such heavy volume.

My confidence is back.

In case you are all wondering, these are my three one minute candles that I painted today. (highlighted)

There are many bullish things again.

Its happening.

The shoulder even has high volume oooo
Theres an even larger pattern at play as well. baby blue head and shoulders.

And I shit you not, An even larger one (yellow)

Exited today at 67.5 Took a loss.

Gary raining on my parade. Back to neutral bearish.

Took refuge in BRK.B.

If market goes down I will be hurting less, or maybe not at all.

If market goes up I will gain a little.
Link to my bear thesis. Good to have both drawn out in case. Then you know what to expect in either case and can plan.

Long again at 54.80

If the SEC sues coinbase this week I expect we go to the yellow box.

HOWEVER. If we are higher in the range by the time the SEC sues, then I would suspect we simply fall to range lows again.

Or maybe theres just no effect on price if they sue, since everyone knows theyre going to.

Cut in slight profit. Think it can still bounce but i am not liking what I see across index funds. Seems sketchy.

Last time i was this flip floppy was 2021 bubble top.

Diamond continuation pattern?

still waiting for lower. if it doesnt come i dont buy.

if i held stock now i wouldnt sell, far too late for that imo.
So after hours earnings pump was a coin flip.

The real test is if it sustains. Bitcoin is looking strong so it could keep running.

I am skeptical, i think it gets faded.

The problem with my skepticism is that once coinbase starts running, it doesn't like to let you back in on a pull back. And I am not one to buy into a pump so I would simply miss out on the run.

I think there is strong potential for a back test of the 200 day moving average.
While it is not out of the question that we reach the 200 day moving average, this may have been the test. and the failure to make it there fully is extra bearish.

Nothing has changed. 38 next


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.