AtoHoward

COP - Feb.'18 Exp. Put Vertical Debit Spread

Short
AtoHoward Updated   
NYSE:COP   ConocoPhillips
Trade details:
57.5/50 Put Vertical Debit Spread @ $3.01
Prob. of Max Profit = 10.86%
Prob. of Max Loss = 34.02%
Break-even @ $54.49
50 D.T.E.

Trade plan:
Entry by overbought status + indication of correction/mean reversion analysis.
Expecting pullback to moving average (VWMA) before earnings report in Feb.'18 for profit on weakening uptrend as seen in both Daily + Weekly charts.
Expecting to take quick profit at $53.70 level + will re-establish position if quick profit is possible.
Expecting to hold spread through earnings + allow spread to expire worthless if reversal is strong.
Adjustment will be made if the position goes strongly opposite past $56.40 resistance level.
Comment:
Adjustment:
Due to break out of expected range early in trade.
55/48 Put Vertical Credit @ 0.90
Converted COP Vertical Debit into COP Unbalanced Put Condor

New position:
Adjustment into 57.5/55/50/48 Unbalanced Put Condor Debit Spread @ $2.11 (0.90)
29% reduction in Max Loss.

Expecting to reduce loss even further IF price stays between $57.5 and $48 (possible profit IF price drifts between $55 and $50 by expiration).
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.