Fundamentally, COPPER is mostly linked to China because of the demand there. So, as you know China's economy is falling a lot these days so I decided to take a look at COPPER for some new fresh insight on what's happening.
Although I'm not a great fan of ARC patterns, I find them pretty useful for longer trends. Generally, the breakout happens along the direction of opposite of arcs. (take a look at my dollar-yuan and Bitcoin-dollar ideas that I posted where you can observe those similar patterns.
So , take a look at november 2014. The pattern holds well . Now take a look at the recent January 2016 arc. We might generally think that the breakout is going to happen upwards because fundamentally the demand starts rising slowly during these months. BUT, THE PATTERN POINTS DOWNWARD.
I wouldn't actually believe that COPPER is still going to breakout downwards but looking at the Chinese economy and my USD-Yuan idea , I would agree that we are heading downwards because the China's economy is going to drop like 5-10% more.
In simple words, FALLING CHINESE ECONOMY -> LOW COPPER DEMAND -> WEAKENING CURRENCY