MikeMM

Rotation from tech to energy

Long
MikeMM Updated   
NYSE:CVX   Chevron Corporation
Sure tech can have another couple % up as the rotation is underway, but this chart looks quite convincing to me especially with the weekly bullish div on the macd.

Then we have a bullish engulfing weekly candle...

Atop of that, last week Cramer said this oil rally should be faded.

Buffet has been buying oil (oxy) which is also an interesting play. Although he is not an immediate reversal signal, it shows that the valuation of these companies is at a good area in his eyes.

I would love a small pullback tomorrow but I am not sure we get that. The entry now is not bad, the stoploss would be below the channel which is only 5% loss ish, for an implied 30+% move up.
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I got in today on the pullback @156.84
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On the small and insignificant timer frames we have a breakout and a retest completed.

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Okay so here is oil. I do think we may get some sort of fake out to the downside here, in the short term, 1 to 2 weeks timeframe. 62 dollars or so, which would be a wick after the day ends.

50/50 chance on this, like anything else.

That being said, The long term for oil if were following a markup like the prior 2 cycles, would send oil close to 500 before a deep correction back to 130 ish, and then settling out at 250 ish.

I dont make the rules, I just take a look at history and see how it may rhyme.

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Doubled down today. all in oil at this point.
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Rest of market falls and oil is breaking out of a falling wedge.

The stocks eventually follow. they already are, somewhat.

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thats a breakout of the rectangle now, on oil.

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I have a hunch were going to break out of the range on this attempt, but you could still take some off the table at the top of the range just in case.>>

Supposing we do break through, another 20-30% up from there before a pullback IMO>>>>

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Trash price action in oil and oil stocks. lower before higher IMO
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Will consider buying at the next support.

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Yeah its turning out to be a bear flag...

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Another possibility is a smaller pullback to this yellow channel trendline.

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