MaryJane
Short

On its way down to kiss the 11.000 again

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
107 2 9
The Dax             pullback stopped at his 61,8 fibo-retracement. In my last Analysis i wrote: "Now we have reached the max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau. "
The Index could not break this Level.
Yesterday we have seen a very weak tradingday with the result, that the shortterm-uptrend broke.
A new 1-2-3 -downtrend appears (red counting). what means that a Test of the former LOW @ 11.000 should be exspected. The Chart turns bullish again only with Prices above 11.665 ("3") respective 11.820 ("1").
SHould the market reach the Level of the former LOW @ 11.000 where the EMA & SMA 200 and the longterm (since 2015 - orange "1") uptrendchannels bottom edge are based i exspect a new up-wave with new Highs at the Level of my "target autumn Rally"
Trading below the last valid orange "3" @ 1.0645 should initiate a fast selloff

Green/Grey arrows: exspected way
Grey: Alternative way
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For further Information about my countings have a look @
Introduction into 1-2-3 Trading Pattern

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former Analysis:
The Traders dream became true!
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The Traders dream became true! The pullback stopped @ the 61,8 fibo. Since we have seen the Low @ 11.040 the market decided to go up further. Now we have reached the max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau.

Bearish Szenario: Should the ultrashortterm trend be hurt (Grey arrow) we possible will see a dip to the former LOW @ 11.040. Will the market fall below this Level, the next target would be the LOW @ 10.650. On that way down are based the EMA and SMA 200. They should be a strong Support! If we trade below the last orange "3", i exspect a fast selloff-move.
Bullish szenario: If the index is strong enough to take the last green "2" out of the market, my autumn Rally target can be aimed.
Hybrid Szenario: The market can dip to ist EMA and SMA 200 without hurting any trand or bullish Szenario. Should the market dip to the MA`s i exspect a BIG UP MOVE

Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo?
Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo?
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Will the pullback stop @ 61,8 fibo - the maximal correction level? This would be a traders dream :-)
All Tradingsessions above its 200 sma/ema seem to be bullish anymore.
The range between 10.600-11.060 is neutral
A sustainable close below the ema/sma 200 are selling signals, prices below the last LOW @ 10.600 can generate a selloff
piptank
a year ago
you probably right with it dax 11000-10000, after chinese second devaluation step i cut my losses
Reply
jangseohee
a year ago
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Reply
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