The ultrashortterm downtrend since 11.08.2015 is the Level to watch. As Long as the market is trading in this trend, the shakeout will go on.
Will the Dax break this ultrashortterm trend (Grey arrow), the first target could be the breakoutlevel @10.650 (38,2 fibo-retracement = Minimum correction Level)
This seems to be a massive . From this Level, the market could start the next downwave.
Only Prices above this Level @ 10.650 open the possibility to make a new cyclical high , target would be the trendchannels upper edge @ 11.375. On ist way to this very ambitious target the next appears @ 11.000 (former small breakoutlevel)
Prices below the longterm sh-neckline/ATH-Breakoutlevel @ 9800-10.000 the Crash or sellout enters the next Phase.(exxageration Phase)
former Analysis:1000 Points down?
This morning we see a down gap under his former Low @ 10.814. At this Level the market reached it s desicion Level!
The EMA/SMA 200 are the central supports/resists to watch.
The next weak Support could be the former LOW @ 10.600-10.650.
Below that Level i exspect a fast sellout which can reach till the region round about 9.850 Points! That means that the market reenters its extended flagbody. Because of the cyclic a new downwave to ist bottom edge is thinkable. This Level also is corresponding to the old Breakout Level (neckline) from 15.01.2015
Only sustainable Prices above the EMA/SMA 200 will turn the Chart again At this Point Dax reenters the uptrend and my autumn Rally can be aimed :-)
On its way down to kiss the 11.000 again The Dax pullback stopped at his 61,8 fibo-retracement. In my last Analysis i wrote: "Now we have reached the max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau. "
The Index could not break this Level.
Yesterday we have seen a very weak tradingday with the result, that the shortterm-uptrend broke.
A new 1-2-3 -downtrend appears (red counting). what means that a Test of the former LOW @ 11.000 should be exspected. The Chart turns again only with Prices above 11.665 ("3") respective 11.820 ("1").
SHould the market reach the Level of the former LOW @ 11.000 where the & 200 and the longterm (since 2015 - orange "1") uptrendchannels bottom edge are based i exspect a new up-wave with new Highs at the Level of my "target autumn Rally"
Trading below the last valid orange "3" @ 1.0645 should initiate a fast selloff
Green/Grey arrows: exspected way
Grey: Alternative way
The Traders dream became true!
The Traders dream came became true! The pullback stopped @ the 61,8 fibo. Since we have seen the Low @ 11.040 the market decided to go up further. Now we have resached zthe max. pullback Level, the 61,8 fibo from the way down 11.750-11.040. This Level could be a possibleTurnaround Niveau.
Szenario: Should the ultrashortterm trend be hurt (Grey arrow) we possible will see a dip to the former LOW @ 11.040. Will the market fall below this Level, the next target would be the LOW @ 10.650. On that way down are based the and 200. They should be a strong Support! If we trade below the last orange "3", i exspect a fast selloff-move.
szenario: If the i