WallStScalper

DAX!! you "Makes Me Feel Better"

INDEX:DAX   DAX Stock Index
359 7 7
DAX through the eyes of my Elliott Wave optics

I see DAX             having it's Super Cycle wave 4 low at the Dotcom crisis in 2003             and SC             5 starts from there.

From there it has marched on and didn't - like the US indices - make a new low in 2009.
I see the low there as major wave 2 low.

Dax             is topping out now making only its 3rd major wave up.
Why only 3rd and not the 5th?

The 3rd wave is the strongest wave in the EW theory which also brings about the highest peak on the 2 oscillators at the bottom of the chart.
At the same time Price action making a move outside the Regression channel. Very bullish .
There will be a major wave 4 correction. The 4th wave we "normally" find back to wave 4 of lesser degree.
So I see major wave 4 finding support at midt line of the channel and at structural support area .
(I do though used a regression channel instead of drowning trendlines. It's uncommon, but I have seen good result using it)

What "makes me feel better" is the surprising possibility of having a couple of more years before a nasty downturn will arrive.
That makes me wonder if the US indices also have this...???? Hmmm. have to look into it and see the trade from both sides...but could be possible too if only major wave 3 is ending "now"
DAX             could top out as late as 2020-something... around the fib confluence handles at 14,000ish..didn't see that coming... :)

But bearish now here on the monthly chart due to top in wave major 3

Fear not ...believe in what you see and trade it.
@BLawrenceM

Music at work:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=626fsEM1Cts
https://open.spotify.com/track/22lRqnw0c2eZn3GR7vBzvI
Wall St Scalper
dionvuletich
2 years ago
Gosh I hope so, I'm short..! does the 4th wave correction have to come back at least to around the wave 4 of wave 3
(Not an elliott guy...)
+1 Reply
WallStScalper PRO dionvuletich
2 years ago
Do not have to but 4th waves normally goes back to visit wave 4 of lesser degree in some sense... yes around low area of the 3rd wave top .
But can also be a very time-consuming pennant before moving higher. and not going quite as low.
Reply
dionvuletich WallStScalper
2 years ago
Yes, i think from memory my targets were around the 10115 zone and possibly an ambitious one around 8400 - 8600 but that one is a stretch I think
+1 Reply
WallStScalper PRO dionvuletich
2 years ago
I can see both happen. If US indices indeed are topping out now - the downward pressure on the DAX will be heavy!
Reply
dionvuletich WallStScalper
2 years ago
From my past experience I have noticed the Dax usually showing cracks first - although I have not quantified it as such - I think the political uncertainty re the euro and greece may put pressure on the euro indices but that is only my hunch

I am short a few euro indices right now so am likely bias..
+1 Reply
WallStScalper PRO dionvuletich
2 years ago
Yes likely ...but highly understandable :)
Reply
WallStScalper PRO WallStScalper
2 years ago
I do think you are right in your assumption though
Reply
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