Deviantor_Wayne

Decred: Bullish Breakout Imminent?

Long
BINANCE:DCRUSDT   Decred / TetherUS
Considering the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market and the pattern observed on other cryptocurrencies throughout the crypto sphere that have broken out of a prolonged accumulation phase, it can be expected that DCR will eventually follow the general trend and repeat the pattern that we have already seen on many other coins.
Decred has been facing resistance at the $18.3 level since May 2023, but recent price action on the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes indicates a breakout and retest above this level.
The next significant level to watch is $21.4, which has historically been a key support/resistance level for Decred. While there are signs of weakness on the 1-hour timeframe, such as candles with long shadows that could provoke short positions, there is still no confirmation of a breakdown in the upward structure. The 1-week candle seems strong, and the overall asset shows significant buying volume. This indicates that Decred may be able to consolidate above $21.4 and keep moving upwards successfully.
A breakout and consolidation above $21.4 could lead to increased volatility and larger price swings on higher timeframes, with potential profit-taking zones and resistance levels at $50, $67, and $85. Additionally, the February 2023 high of $28.52 may also present a next strong resistance level in the short-term future.
Comment:
Overall, the situation looks positive both in the general context of the entire cryptocurrency market and for DCRUSDT pair. The Decred was able to consolidate above the previously identified key resistance level at $21.4, and the next resistance zone marked by the February high at $28.52 triggered a correctional movement.
Although the short-term structure on timeframes up to 1 hours is seems to be broken and a continuation of the correction to the $23.48 level can be expected, where a new area of interest is formed and from where the asset will attempt to break through the $28.5-29 level.
Looking at the asset in the context of higher timeframes the zone below $28.5 looks very attractive for entering long positions, as it is an accumulation zone that is most noticeable on the weekly timeframe. The question is how far into this accumulation zone the Decred will be allowed to dive? In the search for an answer to this question, let's examine the daily and monthly charts:
- On the daily chart, the uptrend structure is maintained, and it can only be considered broken if the price falls below the minimum formed on March 5 at the $21.33 level.
- Moving to the monthly timeframe, the maximum of the January candle at $22.96 appears as a strong support level, reaching which will not break the uptrend structure on one hand, but will attract sellers closing their long positions and opening new short ones on the other. The stops of traders opening short positions will be located above $29-30, and if triggered, will generate a buy orderflow that will push the price higher.
Returning to the 4-hour timeframe - it is noticeable that an ascending trendline can be drawn connecting the lows of February 12 and March 6 (with a deviation occurring on February 21-23), testing this trendline will also allow us to close the gap formed on the 4-hour timeframe in the range of $23,03-$23,66.

To Summarize: while the short-term structure on timeframes up to 4 hours appears to be broken, leading to an expected continuation of the correction to the $23.48 level, the asset will then likely make an attempt to break through the $28.5-$29 level. If it successfully surpasses $30, the nearest areas of interest will then shift to $50, $67 and $85.

P.S. Considering a negative scenario, it can be noted that a drop below the minimum formed on March 5 at the $21.33 level will indicate a break in the uptrend structure, which will be evident not only on the 1 hour timeframe, but also on higher timeframes. Consequently, such a downtrend movement will continue down to the levels of $15.3-14, or even lower.
But as long as the price has not gone below 21.33, bullish expectations remain in force.