MVedra

When and how the DAX could play out on May

TVC:DEU30   DAX Index
Here is a fun (and ambitious) call for all three trade elements - price, direction, AND timing of the DAX - here goes!

1. 11900 is the recent support, and now the floor for a head & shoulders pattern clearly forming
2. 12900 is the key resistance level ; that is the high of the 'left shoulder', and the floor when prices were trading at the 'head'. If a 'right shoulder' forms, 12900 could act as the resistance.
3. Timing wise the cycle peak of the 'right shoulder' conveniently coincides with the 5th May - a key date historically, as its the start of the worst 6 months seasonally!

I'll be watching for a negative crossover on the MACD at the end of April...
May 02
Comment: Looking good. The rally from March to now has happened as anticipated by the Head & Shoulders pattern. The top of the right shoulder is completing as we enter May. 12,900 to 13,000 is the key range to watch.
May 23
Comment: -1.50% today, the largest negative move since the rally from 11,900. Considering we are comfortably in the supply zone, I would sell/cover/write calls at this level.
Jul 11
Comment: The head & shoulders pattern continues to form perfectly these last 4 months. Maintain short view.
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