DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
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Line 1 traces the support bounce and the sequential bounce. This line is carried over into perpetuity per the chart. It's a goal setter. 08' recession happened and broke below the line. The bottom of that trend measures distance with red line. This is where the trend reversal begins.

The new race is against the previously set trend with line 1. We tipped it in 2015, and it was a hard resistance. We broke it in 2017 and the rally was equal to the distance from the 'line 1' support trend and the pit of '08 recession, which started ' line 2' support trend.

We are very obviously capped. It's trend reversal time. The inverse of the proposition stated earlier was factored in from the top, where the most recent decline assumes the beginning of the market reversal.
This mirroring method gave me a figure of 70% decline. I'm not saying will hold, but I am saying that it's a hell of a proposition to be made, and that's my target for getting back into equities.


Guys, this isn't investment advice. Don't take it as such. I don't know what I'm doing 50% of the time, and the other 50% of the time, I'm sticking only to what I know. You do you, and just try your best. We'll figure it out.

Comments

Great Work.. I agree, Faster is what I show. With the way things are traded today. Do you think late 2020 or early 2021?
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thehoplite Marcus2018
@Marcus2018, So, I'm a fundamentals kind of guy, and honestly the macro tickers are what feed my models. Everything I've hashed out in excel have showed really problematic turns in the making, but nothing has shown to be damning until just more recently. The consumer confidence readings from mid-month reports (January) have me a little concerned, but that will only be something worthy of evidence if they stay hinged down. No one can call the recession with precision, as we know, but many of the hidden factors are presenting themselves in these times. I had gotten out of equities in January of 2018, and might have missed a shallow opportunity to trade. However, I'm not a trader when it comes to my portfolio. My principle source of income comes from the things I can more readily control like my drainage construction business. It gives me a lot of insight into the fundamentals of the commercial world and a good general sense of what the public behaviors look like with respect to real consequence. As for that experience goes, 2018 was actually my best year by far and seemingly a sporadic spending move from out of nowhere. As the late summer came to a simmer, I can still see opportunities, but they are unquestionably more and more spaced out, and the new clients I face have quite a bit of lingering apprehension. I receive more hard tactics from them on price, as they try to weigh out other options I offer, and that's a very sure sign that though they see the value, their ability to budget a "need" based project has become tight. More residential clients ask for financing than usual, and that could be just a demographic shift in itself, but I'm thinking it's really just an overall reality that consumers have maxed themselves out on other items bought on credit. Eventually, things really will come to grinding halt, and I'll just have to get creative with where I can offer services and might even have to prop up on the more peripheral things we do like repairs, architectural planning, flushing or whatever else we've got the equipment for. All in all, I think being in business gives you the best gauge on the economy, and right now the business barometer reads "fair" weather but certainly not anywhere "great". On that, I'm based in Texas, so the actual weather has almost zero implication on operations. It's cool/warm here in the winter, and every other year comes with steady flow of work with no real pause.
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Marcus2018 thehoplite
@thehoplite, For years I traded from a more fundamental stance,2005 to 2018, but changed over this past February 2018 to charting technical trades only for the most part. I wish I would have done that a decade earlier. I always used charting but for whatever reason I still thought that fundamentals weighted more. Which I realized using those in tandem work best. So now I trade using my wacky back tested charting technique and technicians view. I also have one business that is located in a tourist area, and one business that is, like you, a construction company, both residential homes and infrastructure. So I can pull the general sentiment feeling of how the real world is treating them from a thousand customers a month from around the country. Which to me is very important. Because once they realize something may be coming you probably are late, so to speak. Our businesses are higher ticket items, as your is as well, so I get a broad range of feedback. Which keeps it real. The bankers have had their best year in 2018 and now have nothing in the pipeline for 2019. The contractors I talk to are slammed until June from jobs started in 2018, and few projects even confirmed for fall 2019. Overall the sentiment confirms my charts. So 2700 in the S@P is a line in the sand to me so to speak. Obviously I chart daily and change with the movement but I feel ready to take advantage of what I see coming. Timing is always the hard to pinpoint. I'm sure we try to be better today than we were yesterday no matter what we do.
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You the man.
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