This is my first post. I thought it would be interesting to see the Dow Jones index priced relative to the U.S. monetary base - and how the trend will change in the coming years. I normalized (1:1) the monetary base on December 2007, the officially recognized start of the Great Recession.
Based on this rudimentary chart, it appears the Fed is near a tipping point. Their options appear to be (in order of likelihood, in my opinion)
(1a) Sit back, do nothing, and hope the "China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal" optimism will continue to push the markets higher. Did I mention the China Trade Deal?
(1b) Assuming 1a occurs, Fed could resume quantitative tightening or increase the federal funds rate by 0.25%.
(2) If neither 1a/1b occur and DJI and other economic indicators remain stagnant, lower interest rates.
(3) Lastly, renew the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE5).
Based on this rudimentary chart, it appears the Fed is near a tipping point. Their options appear to be (in order of likelihood, in my opinion)
(1a) Sit back, do nothing, and hope the "China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal China Trade Deal" optimism will continue to push the markets higher. Did I mention the China Trade Deal?
(1b) Assuming 1a occurs, Fed could resume quantitative tightening or increase the federal funds rate by 0.25%.
(2) If neither 1a/1b occur and DJI and other economic indicators remain stagnant, lower interest rates.
(3) Lastly, renew the monetary policy of quantitative easing (QE5).