PolkaDot #DOTUSD: Long-Term Analysis

Cryptocurrencies are experiencing challenges post the Bitcoin ETF release, a predicted event that didn't act as a Buy-like catalyst for the market. It serves as a reminder that not all assets surge after such an occurrence. Despite this, the current phase presents an intriguing opportunity, particularly for PolkaDot.

PolkaDot has shown a somewhat delayed response since the low at the end of last year compared to its counterparts. An overarching Wave (1) has formed, and we are currently entering Wave (2). This correction is anticipated to range between 61.8% and 78.6%. A dip below this range would strongly suggest that it might not be Wave (2), and the correction could extend further below the $3.64 mark.

However, if a turnaround occurs within this range, we foresee a minimum upward movement reaching $15.5 🔥

Comment:

For Polkadot (DOT), what we considered a possibility has occurred—a longer correction for Wave (2) that is yet to complete. DOT is lagging behind compared to other cryptocurrencies, indicating it's in a different cycle. This cycle appears not to be fully concluded, as evidenced by the potential fall below the invalidation line on the 2-hour chart, which would rule out the progression through Waves 3 and 4. If we manage to hold above this line and continue upwards, then the alternate W scenario becomes invalidated. Currently, it's highly precarious since we've nearly respected the 78.6% level before declining.

We await to see if we'll reach our target near the 61.8% retracement at $5.90. Similar to our approach with other assets, we won't engage in any short-term panic buying. We'll wait and observe how the situation unfolds.

Comment:

For DOT, the increasing belief is that Wave (2) may have already concluded, slightly missing the optimal entry point, though this is not overly concerning. A closer examination of the 2-hour chart suggests that Wave 3 may have completed at precisely the 161% extension level. The unfolding developments will provide clarity. It appears an over-extended flat structure may be forming towards the completion of Wave 4, where the next entry points are anticipated. It is believed that the retracement will likely hit the 50-61% range without dropping below, due to the low probability of such a move and the potential invalidation of the bullish scenario.

The possibility remains that there could be an regular, or expanded flat structure on the daily chart. However, this is becoming increasingly unlikely since the completion of Wave (2) at $6 increasingly resembles a 5-wave rather than a 3-wave impulse, suggesting that a flat or any prolonged correction is becoming not plausible.

Comment:

Please cancel the limit order from the last setup ❌
For Polkadot, the daily chart scenario that we could dip again to complete a Wave (2) is not yet off the table. We've encountered resistance in the range of 127.2% to 138%, which is the maximum level for an Expanded Flat. Thus, it remains possible that we might see another dip for a Wave (2), although this seems very unlikely, but it cannot be entirely ruled out. On the short-term chart, we are canceling our last limit order, as the market has improved significantly upwards, and the chart has long since moved on from that scenario. Now, we must consider that we might be concluding Wave 4 in the coming days, or it may have already concluded. This remains to be seen. A Running Flat could be possible, given that Wave 4 has already dipped quite low as A, and we're in a very fast-moving market where a Running Flat could occur. The most likely zone we would target again is $8.57. We shouldn't fall much further below this. Wave 1 still serves as our invalidation zone. If we fall below it, it becomes highly likely that we could return to our entry zone for Wave (2), at which point we would reactivate it and place a long-term entry again.