Devon Energy DVN to rally 10% or more to catch up to Crude Oil

The recent breakout of the small triangle might be alerting us to a much bigger trade here in DVN. This is not the first time I have posted a chart on DVN calling for a move up. However, note the distinct correlation between DVN (candlestick chart) and Crude Oil (Bar chart, faded). The recent rally has been more in the front months of crude oil (which is known as backwardation, where front months trade above the price of more distant delivery months) and may explain the relative weakness shown by DVN. There may be a better trade to go short Crude Oil and Long DVN and hold for 3-6 months. I would choose to short crude oil in more distant contracts and not in front months.

Note the very distinctive, blue trendline that connects the 2nd highest low across the highs of each rally. This is not a "normal" way of looking at trendlines, but it makes sense to me. I want to see how high the LOWEST BUYER of the day was in the rally phases. What I am trying to find is the point where the buyers have lifted the stock to in the previous rallies. Two days is more indicative of strength than one, and the pattern seems to show with two days. It appears this has a chance to get through this time if we start to see some volume.

Also note the Interesting collection of triangles together in this base formation. I can't say I have seen this before but it caught my eye and thought it was interesting to see how the market is acting and reacting around previous price action.

Lastly, the very clear symmetrical triangle at the end of this chart, which is after over a year of sideways, base-building action.

Again, look for volume to confirm and be willing to average in over a few days and be ready to buy on dips. I hope this train gives us plenty of time to jump on board before it leaves the station.

Tim 2:08PM EST Thursday, September 5, 2013