China Disappoints, Taliban Adding Fuel to Fire

The start of the week was not the most optimistic for the financial markets. China has released data on industrial production and retail sales. The data came out not so completely disastrous, rather disappointing. And most importantly, they give a clear understanding that the peak of economic recovery has clearly passed and the whole question now is how much everything will slow down and how quickly.

Considering that China is ahead of the rest of the world, it is possible to roughly project the development of the situation in the United States, then in Britain and the EU, where there are lags regarding the Chinese economy. In general, thoughts about the prospects in this light are very gloomy.

The shots from the Kabul Airport did not add to the joy either. The Taliban have taken full control of Afghanistan. This means that another point of increased uncertainty and potential risks has appeared on the globe.

All this was superimposed on the sediment after Friday data on consumer sentiment in the United States, which, according to the University of Michigan, came out as a failure and ended up at a ten-year low.

In general, all hope for today. US retail sales data will be released. If they turn out to be weak (which is very likely simply due to the nature of the calculation of the indicator: the growth rates are calculated by the chain method relative to the previous month, when the indicator grew), then the markets may fall into natural despondency and then the US stock market cannot avoid sales.

In addition, data on industrial production in the US, the UK labor market and GDP in the Eurozone will be published. So it won't be boring. In addition, comments are expected from Powell and some other Fed officials.