Kumowizard

USD index before FED - Fade USD strength?

TVC:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
91 0 7
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is absolutely neutral
- Heikin-Ashi pattern is neutral: last 2 months' candles are bearis, bearish , bullish , neutral, neutral, and this week starts with some bullish bias, but haOscillator is not strong.
- EWO and MACD are neutral
- Downtrendline and Kumo top at 96,20+. This is the hard resistance line. We could talk about dollar bull only above this level.
- Possible triangle within possible downtrend channel . Lower supp /res. marked by inner uptrendline and Kijun Sen ard 94,75.

Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral. Price is still in the Kumo cloud. All average lines stay close together and they are flat.
- Heikin-Ashi has had some bullish bias within the tight range, but price reached upper resistance zone . Not much juice left here to squeeze before FOMC.
- EWO is neutral.
- ATR is still low -> very low volatilitty

Obviously FED will decide with its rethoric which way to force a breakout. But the breakout is close, goven how tight the triangle pattern , and how low the volatility is.

Note:
Just as a feeling for now, I prefer to short dollar on these spikes. Despite slightly stronger inflation data, I doubt FED will hike before elections. Bond market price action shows same expectation -> bonds are not really gaining bearish momentum . I also think all central banks globally will be far behind the curve for long time, even if inflation picks up in the close future. They will not risk an economic turndown with pre-emptive hikes, the last thing they want is a stagflation and increasing debt burden.

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