IvanLabrie
Long

DXY: Weekly analysis shows an uptrend

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Bearish momentum during last week must fade before we safely long the dollar again. It might take some time to shake off the bears here, but the election might play its part, making next week be a battle between the current bears in control, and the bulls. The high of the Brexit day might prove to hold the selling, specially confirmed if we don't see any weekly HIGH sitting lower than it, on close.

Although the timeframe isn't quite the weekly for the dollar signal on chart, it helps see the patterns from previous legs with clarity. From a 'Time at mode' perspective, we're in a 16 week advance, that should see 100 hit before January 20th, 2017. Depending on how prices act next week, we can decide to go long the dollar with good probability of success and a great risk/reward ratio, so stay tuned.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: 0 heat
Comment: Some heat...notice that the invalidation was 95.50 which wasn't hit.
Comment: Target hit, exit DXY longs, you can look to buy gold and EURUSD soon. USDSEK and USDJPY are more bullish but also susceptible to a pullback here and then. I'm flat USD longs, and focusing on buying dips next, in USDNOK, USDJPY, USDSEK, mainly.
Hello, thanks for your published chart.
I am agreed with bullish long-term move on DXY
my mind is
MN : Wave 3
WK : Wave 5 end confirmation is not seen yet.
Reply
Hi, your big 1-2, it retraced too far to be an impulsive wave 1-2. It can't exceed 0.618 if it's a trending impulse.
The smaller degree 1-2 didn't break the high of wave (1) or any trendline you construct from the first wave (1) on your chart, so it cannot be a new impulse move yet. It looks more like a triangle down there, but I don't know the specifics of the wave count here. I don't want to do that kind of analysis, but I would reccomend you read Glenn Neely's book on the subject if it interests you. The wave count you propose isn't in agreement with his constructive rules of logic.Your wave 3 looks like a thrust out of a triangle, which makes more sense. It improves greatly on the more subjective and vague rules stated in Pretcher's book.
+1 Reply
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