Lazy parsing of DXY

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Short-term: You've probably already heard the news: the US Congress has finally adopted a package of measures to support the economy in a pandemic in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion, and on March 12, Joe Biden signed this project.

What do all analysts expect from this event? Basically, this will additionally stimulate consumer demand, economic growth, and the US GDP may grow by as much as 5-6%, that new money will pour into the market pushing it to all new ATH (highs).

We share the optimism of the Democrats and, in general, agree with the opinion of many analysts about the benefits of these stimulus measures. But we would not be us if we looked at the world of finance through the “rose-colored glasses of optimism”. The world is such that if it arrives somewhere, then somewhere it should decrease.

I believe that additional stimulus measures will have a very short-term positive impact on the market, and in the longer term, it will have a negative impact on the value of the dollar. Those. we expect the dollar to fall against other currencies and commodities (such as gold ), adding value to the last.

Long-term: Based on my technical analysis , I can judge that the Dollar Index will still show growth in the next 3-6 years. The minimum values in this interval (S / L) are 84-84-86. While the expected growth should be to around 109. This can be seen from the wave technical analysis on the chart.


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