We are going to look at the long term picture (monthly) which triggered, on December closing basis, a SHOOTING STAR !
(similar pattern took place in April 2020...)
Indeed, after having failed to upside breakout the monthly clouds resistance, the BTCUSD closed roughly at the bottom of the clouds.
Therefore, last month price action should be seen as the first warning signal of a trend reversal in that long term time frame.
Looking to the downside, we can see that the DXY is still supported by the ongoing support trend line, currently around
94.10/20 which also, roughly coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last 0.89535-0.969380 rally.
A failure to hold above this area would put the focus one figure lower towards the monthly cluster support zone of 93.20-0.9325.
Watch also Chikou-span price action which is still, currently inside the clouds, below the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen and which also should breakout the clouds to the upside to
confirm further upside !
On the upside, a next monthly closing level, in January, above the clouds would neutralize the ongoing downside risk.
WEEKLY (W1)
Second black weekly candle which closed just above the trigger level of a potential double top formation in progress.
Globally still in an uptrend channel and above the first significant weekly support @ 95.38.
Watch ongoing price action as a failure to stay, hold and close at the next weekly closing above that level would add further
pressure to the downside, calling firstly for a move towards the uptrend channel support line (currently @ 94.75 ahead of the weekly
cluster (94.47-94.37).
DAILY (D1)
Under the influence of a potential double top in progress, currently close to the trigger level @ 95.52 (also top of the daily clouds support zone !
A daily closing level below 95.52 would be the first warning validation signal for this double top pattern, calling for a technical target of 94.10
which, roughly coincides with the level of the long term (monthly) ongoing support line, above mentioned and last but not least with the bottom
of the daily clouds support too.
RSI is converging to the downside too.
A daily closing above 96.25 on a daily basis would neutralize the ongoing downside risk and would put the focus again for a retest of the former highs around
97.00
Finally, watch carefully at the intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above
mentioned.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
(similar pattern took place in April 2020...)
Indeed, after having failed to upside breakout the monthly clouds resistance, the BTCUSD closed roughly at the bottom of the clouds.
Therefore, last month price action should be seen as the first warning signal of a trend reversal in that long term time frame.
Looking to the downside, we can see that the DXY is still supported by the ongoing support trend line, currently around
94.10/20 which also, roughly coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last 0.89535-0.969380 rally.
A failure to hold above this area would put the focus one figure lower towards the monthly cluster support zone of 93.20-0.9325.
Watch also Chikou-span price action which is still, currently inside the clouds, below the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen and which also should breakout the clouds to the upside to
confirm further upside !
On the upside, a next monthly closing level, in January, above the clouds would neutralize the ongoing downside risk.
WEEKLY (W1)
Second black weekly candle which closed just above the trigger level of a potential double top formation in progress.
Globally still in an uptrend channel and above the first significant weekly support @ 95.38.
Watch ongoing price action as a failure to stay, hold and close at the next weekly closing above that level would add further
pressure to the downside, calling firstly for a move towards the uptrend channel support line (currently @ 94.75 ahead of the weekly
cluster (94.47-94.37).
DAILY (D1)
Under the influence of a potential double top in progress, currently close to the trigger level @ 95.52 (also top of the daily clouds support zone !
A daily closing level below 95.52 would be the first warning validation signal for this double top pattern, calling for a technical target of 94.10
which, roughly coincides with the level of the long term (monthly) ongoing support line, above mentioned and last but not least with the bottom
of the daily clouds support too.
RSI is converging to the downside too.
A daily closing above 96.25 on a daily basis would neutralize the ongoing downside risk and would put the focus again for a retest of the former highs around
97.00
Finally, watch carefully at the intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios above
mentioned.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
