U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Preview
With the imminent release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data scheduled for today at 1:30 pm (UK time), let's assess the market's expectations and positioning for this pivotal economic report.
Expectations:
Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Unemployment Change data fell short of projections at 103k versus the anticipated 130k. This sets an apprehensive stage for today's non-farm report.
Consensus estimates project an addition of 185k jobs to the U.S. economy in November, an increase from October's 150k reading. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise to 0.3% from the previous month's 0.2%, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 3.9%.
Dollar Index:
The once-dominant dollar has waned in recent weeks, following dovish remarks from the Fed last month. We’ve seen the dollar index press down into the lower Keltner Channel retracing upwards, forming an ascending retracement channel. A break below this channel post the NFP reading might trigger another bout of dollar weakness.
Dollar Index Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
US Stocks:
The prospect of a dovish fed in 2024 has sent U.S. stocks surging higher. All three major US stock indices are in ‘overbought’ territory with prices above or near the upper Keltner Channel and the RSI index above 70.
Interestingly, the heavyweight Dow 30 is the only index of the three to have broken and held above its summer highs. We’ll be watching to see if this broken resistance will become support should the Dow continue to trend higher.
Meanwhile, the S&P index has formed a tight consolidation box just under key resistance. A breakout below this box might prompt a retreat towards the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the October lows.
Similarly, tech stocks on the NASDAQ have stalled below crucial resistance, leaving breakout traders on edge ahead of the upcoming NFP report.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Dow 30 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Nasdaq Composite Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents
With the imminent release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data scheduled for today at 1:30 pm (UK time), let's assess the market's expectations and positioning for this pivotal economic report.
Expectations:
Wednesday's ADP Non-Farm Unemployment Change data fell short of projections at 103k versus the anticipated 130k. This sets an apprehensive stage for today's non-farm report.
Consensus estimates project an addition of 185k jobs to the U.S. economy in November, an increase from October's 150k reading. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise to 0.3% from the previous month's 0.2%, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 3.9%.
Dollar Index:
The once-dominant dollar has waned in recent weeks, following dovish remarks from the Fed last month. We’ve seen the dollar index press down into the lower Keltner Channel retracing upwards, forming an ascending retracement channel. A break below this channel post the NFP reading might trigger another bout of dollar weakness.
Dollar Index Daily Candle Chart
US Stocks:
The prospect of a dovish fed in 2024 has sent U.S. stocks surging higher. All three major US stock indices are in ‘overbought’ territory with prices above or near the upper Keltner Channel and the RSI index above 70.
Interestingly, the heavyweight Dow 30 is the only index of the three to have broken and held above its summer highs. We’ll be watching to see if this broken resistance will become support should the Dow continue to trend higher.
Meanwhile, the S&P index has formed a tight consolidation box just under key resistance. A breakout below this box might prompt a retreat towards the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the October lows.
Similarly, tech stocks on the NASDAQ have stalled below crucial resistance, leaving breakout traders on edge ahead of the upcoming NFP report.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Dow 30 Daily Candle Chart
Nasdaq Composite Daily Candle Chart
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents