Technicals:
Near-term trendline - blue
Intermediate-term trendline - orange
Scenario I
The Dollar's near-term trendline upward coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent low.
If the Dollar respects the near-term trendline then expect a move to new highs.
Scenario II
The near-term trendline assent upwards is steep.
If the Dollar does not respects the near-term trendline, expect a pull back to the 200 MA and then a march back up.
The 200 MA coincides with the intermediate-term trendline and a Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8.
Fundamentals:
The DXY is primarily composed of the Euro.
Economic headwinds from the Ukraine-Russia war are going to strain Europe as we get closer to winter.
Energy prices in Europe will have a pronounced effect on inflation.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Euro comes out on top.
Expect the Dollar's current upward trend to continue long term.
Near-term trendline - blue
Intermediate-term trendline - orange
Scenario I
The Dollar's near-term trendline upward coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent low.
If the Dollar respects the near-term trendline then expect a move to new highs.
Scenario II
The near-term trendline assent upwards is steep.
If the Dollar does not respects the near-term trendline, expect a pull back to the 200 MA and then a march back up.
The 200 MA coincides with the intermediate-term trendline and a Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8.
Fundamentals:
The DXY is primarily composed of the Euro.
Economic headwinds from the Ukraine-Russia war are going to strain Europe as we get closer to winter.
Energy prices in Europe will have a pronounced effect on inflation.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Euro comes out on top.
Expect the Dollar's current upward trend to continue long term.
