DanV
Short

DOLLAR INDEX - IMMINENT BREAKDOWN IN BEARISH LONG TERM TREND

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
2083 23 5
If you have seen some of my other charts and in particular EURUSD             chart you will note that I do have overall bullish bias over longer term for EURUSD             and correspondingly Bearish view for the Dollar. So much so that EURUSD             could very well retest its all time high and Dollar index             could plumb to new low. That aside I was alarmed at what I noted in the Dollar index             price action over the last 2 days to the extent that whilst we can hope that it will hold the support zone, it is becoming vulnerable for further weakness and is imminent for the following reasons:
(1) It has been consolidating since September Low in what might be possible Wave B triangle, which appears to be complete and new impulsive leg to the downside is in development.
(2) USDJPY             is near completing intermediate top and retracement is imminent if not already started. I will show the Snapshot of USDJPY             in the Commenst below.
(3) USDZAR             appears to have topped -
USDZAR - INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH

(4) Taking a look at the UUP             which shows Volume (Snap below in the comment section) shows that the OBV has already broken down below the support. That the Consolidation has taken place in declining volume and the recent down leg has exhibits above average volume and that the yesterday's decline had the highest volume in the recent time. Whilst this could be exhaustive move but such do not look reasonable in that we are still in the congestion. Except that it is showing extreme weakness. I hope I am wrong but wonder if against all odds Dollar could rally hols up here. If the Dollar Index             broke below the support then EURUSDc will rocket to levels around 1.38 -1.40 or higher.
DanV MOD
3 years ago
USDJPY could be forming intermediate high if it is not in place already
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
snapshot
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
snapshot


UUP showing OBV failing below the support with above average volume on down day yesterday
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
snapshot


USDZAR with significant top in place or will shortly.
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US Dollar Complex Head-and-Shoulders with Double Chin


Pattern and Fibs vs EW
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DanV MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Thanks for that chart. WE will have to see how Dollar Index perform today & tomorrow regarding any support at the current level to postpone the likely breakdown.
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Abe C QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Wow!
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
Since the chart was published. the Dollar Index seem to have found interim support at the critical level identifies in the chart. So now it looks like there is larger ABCDE triangle (in blue) which could complete with Dollar Index climbing to 80.5 before declining. Otherwise the whole pattern is a a Flat Corrective since the low of September. In which case it it seems that we may have (in PINK) Waves "A" & "B" in the form of Zigzags and Wave "C" is in progress which should develop in 5 internal waves up which could reach to 81.50 are before topping out. Here is the chart to show what I mean.
snapshot
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
Whilst I am closing this chart and no specific trade was taken on DXY but only used as a gauge of Dollar Strength and hence possible move on other USD based assets or currency pairs. I noted on the chart the critical level on DXY apparently held. However, that only postpone the inevitable decline. I think DXY is approaching a possible level around 83 where it could form top either to range further in the zone with Sept Low and current high, or more likely to start the new trend to the downside. I will post a new chart shortly.
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