News background on 24.08.2018

The week that is coming to an end, in terms of economic events, was relatively quiet (relative to last week and sales in emerging markets, as well as the problems of Turkey and Russia).
Macroeconomic statistics was little and nothing radically new it did not bring. Important events were the publication of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday (again, nothing new - the Fed continues to hold the interest rate growth line), as well as the minutes of the last ECB meeting (also without any sensations or anything new). The main economic event of the week is the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which traditionally includes representatives of central banks, finance ministers, leading economists, and leaders of the world's largest companies.

The most interesting things happened and happen around Trump. But this week's headliners were not news from the fields of trade wars (although they too were - the US continued to butt with China, overlapping each other with additional tariffs for goods totaling 16 billion, but with the EU, on the contrary, the war was staged on pause - additional tariffs for cars from Europe have so far been postponded), but were scandals associated with the environment of Trump.

Paul Manafort, Michael Cohen, as well as accusations of collusion with Russia - these are the main topics of this week. The case clearly moves and moves against Trump. It had already reached the point where Trump was asked about possible impeachment on the FOX channel (before that the impeachment theme was only hypothetical). The fact is that the confessions of the "Trump people", coupled with the possible victory of the Democrats during the autumn elections to the Congress, make impeachment a very real variant of the development of events. Trump, of course, on this occasion threatened all market collapse.

Developing Trump's theme, we note that he is increasingly trying to crush the dollar with verbal interventions, critisising his high rate, then accusing the Fed of too tight monetary policy. However, the Central Bank for the time being continues to adhere to its line and ignores the comments and tweets of the US President.

Continuing the theme of populists and the consequences of their election. In Italy, after the collapse of the bridge in Genoa, the populist party "Five Stars" put forward a demand for an increase in government spending on the reconstruction of all (!) Bridges in the country. As it is typical for populists, they do not think about where to take money for this. Such costs will lead to a breach of the EU's requirement to exceed the deficit of 3% of GDP. As a result, the yield of bonds of Italy soared to the maximum since 2012 values.

It's troublesome right now, even in Australia. The current prime minister is stepping down and an internal political crisis is ripening in the country over the election of a successor.

Still everything is bad with the Russian ruble. Yesterday there were news that the Swiss bank Credit Suisse had blocked Russia's assets by $ 5 billion due to sanctions. Ruble logically reacted and fall. Even in the actions of the Central Bank of Russia, there is a slight panic. First Central Bank enters the foreign exchange market and buy dollars (within the budget rule), dispersing the panic wave, then they declare refusal to comply with the budget rule. All this in any way does not promote calm in the Russian currency market, especially against the backdrop of the adoption of new sanctions by the US and possible their sharp tightening in 3 months.