The US dollar concluded another week on the ropes, shedding 0.5%. MTD, nevertheless, the US Dollar Index is 1.0% in the red, following a 2.3% drop in March. Those who read my previous Weekly Market Insight may recall that I highlighted the likelihood of further downside unfolding, which, as you can see, has indeed materialised.
Friday, however, concluded the session in the shape of a bullish outside day (a two-candle formation where focus is on the upper and lower shadows rather than the real bodies), a move that snapped a three-day bearish phase just north of daily demand from 100.27-100.77. While the aforementioned technical observations could motivate a bullish presence this week, the daily timeframe is trending south. Additionally, the monthly timeframe exhibits scope to press as far south as support around 99.67. Consequently, although the monthly timeframe has been trending higher since 2008, sellers continue to have the upper hand, it would appear.
Concerning the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the monthly timeframe shows that the indicator remains on the doorstep of its 50.00 centreline, which happens to be shadowed by a trendline resistance-turned-support from the high 82.87. However, the RSI on the daily chart is nestled comfortably beneath its 50.00 centreline (telling market participants that average losses exceed average gains: negative momentum).
So, where does this leave the greenback in the final two weeks of April?
Sellers, as noted above, are technically in the driving seat. Yet, before sellers attempt to overthrow the 100.27-100.77 demand on the daily scale, chartists—given the demand—may want to pencil in the possibility of a pop higher. Nevertheless, this will unlikely be anything to write home about and is unlikely to move beyond the 50-day simple moving average at 103.46: a sell-on-rally scenario will likely be on the watchlist for many going forward.
Friday, however, concluded the session in the shape of a bullish outside day (a two-candle formation where focus is on the upper and lower shadows rather than the real bodies), a move that snapped a three-day bearish phase just north of daily demand from 100.27-100.77. While the aforementioned technical observations could motivate a bullish presence this week, the daily timeframe is trending south. Additionally, the monthly timeframe exhibits scope to press as far south as support around 99.67. Consequently, although the monthly timeframe has been trending higher since 2008, sellers continue to have the upper hand, it would appear.
Concerning the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the monthly timeframe shows that the indicator remains on the doorstep of its 50.00 centreline, which happens to be shadowed by a trendline resistance-turned-support from the high 82.87. However, the RSI on the daily chart is nestled comfortably beneath its 50.00 centreline (telling market participants that average losses exceed average gains: negative momentum).
So, where does this leave the greenback in the final two weeks of April?
Sellers, as noted above, are technically in the driving seat. Yet, before sellers attempt to overthrow the 100.27-100.77 demand on the daily scale, chartists—given the demand—may want to pencil in the possibility of a pop higher. Nevertheless, this will unlikely be anything to write home about and is unlikely to move beyond the 50-day simple moving average at 103.46: a sell-on-rally scenario will likely be on the watchlist for many going forward.