Aaron-Hill

Aaron-Hill

This is a market that the Research Team have been monitoring closely over the past few weeks, and for good reason. The following echoes thoughts from previous research (italics) The monthly timeframe—entrenched within a longer-term uptrend—is now eyeing a run to the 4,607 top printed in July, which shares chart space near weekly resistance at 4,595. Technically...

Aaron-Hill

Active Monthly Resistance Kicking off from the monthly chart, it is clear that the pair remains trending northbound. Momentum to the upside for the USD/JPY, however, has noticeably slowed this year compared to 2022, visible not only from the price action but also evident from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), seen testing overbought space and opening the door...

Aaron-Hill

Dreadful Week for the US Dollar Down -1.9% against a basket of six international currencies, the US Dollar Index erased the prior week’s upside move last week and pencilled in its most significant one-week decline since July. MTD, the Dollar Index is also down -2.7% and on track to snap a three-month winning streak. Direction Going Forward? The monthly...

Aaron-Hill

On track to end the month printing its most significant one-month gain since the beginning of this year (+26.0% MTD), last week wrapped up +13.7% higher and touched resistance on the weekly timeframe at $35,060, bringing the major cryptocurrency’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the overbought threshold. Below, weekly support warrants attention at $30,478, while...

Aaron-Hill

The monthly timeframe—still technically entrenched within a longer-term uptrend—is nearing support coming in at 4,102. Connecting with the aforementioned base would likely witness the monthly chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) connect with familiar indicator support between 40.00 and 50.00. Together with the weekly timeframe’s downtrend, the index ended the...

Aaron-Hill

The technical landscape offers an interesting perspective ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate decision on Thursday. With the market widely anticipating a no-change out of the central bank, price action on the weekly timeframe has buyers and sellers battling for position between resistance from $1.2331 and support coming in from $1.2086. Interestingly, should...

Aaron-Hill

The buck ended the week eking out a moderate gain (+0.40%), according to the US Dollar Index. You will note on the weekly scale (not shown below) that the chart has been rangebound since late September, creating what many technicians will recognise as a bullish flag pattern between 107.35 and 105.54. This is in harmony with the monthly timeframe’s structure and...

Aaron-Hill

Price action on the daily chart of ETH/USD ruptured the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern in late September (drawn from the high of $1,744) and reached a high of $1,755 before pulling back and retesting the pattern’s upper limit. With price now trending higher (seen through higher highs and higher lows) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) testing the...

Aaron-Hill

As evident from the chart below, the week concluded by testing an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish formation at 32,973 (depicted by a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio). You will note that the AB=CD pattern is joined closely by a descending resistance-turned-support taken from the high of 36,952 and trendline support extended from the low of 18,213. Like the S&P 500...

Aaron-Hill

Aside from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), which ended -0.3% lower, last week witnessed gains across major US equity indices. The S&P 500 snapped a 4-week losing streak and rebounded from channel support on the weekly timeframe, taken from the low of 3,491. Additional technical confluence underpinning price can be seen in the form of an equivalent AB=CD...

Aaron-Hill

A move from ¥150.00 to around ¥147.00 was seen in the space of two minutes last week. As of writing, Japanese officials did not confirm whether an intervention was the cause. Regardless, the sell-off from the ¥150.00 handle was drastic and likely caught many traders and investors off guard. From the monthly timeframe, the technical picture points to further...

Aaron-Hill

The Dollar Index finished the first full week of October eking out marginal losses, falling -0.1% and snapping an 11-week winning streak. Technically speaking, though, the trend on both the monthly and daily timeframes continues to favour buying despite the decline seen in the second half of last week. Momentum also still leans in favour of buyers. The Relative...

Aaron-Hill

Closing higher for a fourth consecutive week after rebounding from weekly support at $219.86 (a level complemented by the Relative Strength Index recoiling from the 50.00 centreline), Tesla (TSLA) added more than 10.0% last week. The recent advance has landed the stock within striking distance of weekly trendline resistance, taken from the high of $414.50. In...

Aaron-Hill

Against the US dollar, sterling ended another week on the ropes, down -0.7% and on track to touch gloves with weekly support at $1.2331 this week. The longer-term trend based on the weekly timeframe shows current action is establishing a correction in a market trending higher since the currency pair touched a record low of $1.1156 in September 2022. With room for...

Aaron-Hill

I touched on this currency pair last week and noted the following on the monthly timeframe (italics): Longer-term price action on the monthly timeframe rejected a key area of resistance in July at $1.1233, a base accompanied by the 50-month simple moving average at $1.1164. Subsequent flow observed selling in August, followed by the beginning of September also...

Aaron-Hill

The dollar is proving relentless. Up +0.3% on the week, this marks the greenback’s ninth consecutive weekly gain. Technically, however, this is not a surprise. The monthly timeframe’s long-term trend has been north since mid-2008, and the Q4 (2022) correction has likely been viewed as a dip-buying opportunity from monthly support at 99.67, as noted in previous...

Aaron-Hill Updated 

Against the US dollar, the price of Bitcoin wrapped up the week considerably off best levels, despite shaking hands with support on the weekly timeframe at $25,381 last week. The test of support, as I communicated in previous analysis, follows a rejection from weekly resistance overhead at $30,644. The key observation for me this week is the weekly support level...

Aaron-Hill

Spot gold in $ terms withdrew last week, erasing -1.1% and trimming a large portion of the previous two-week winning streak that began from the weekly timeframe’s descending resistance-turned support taken from the high of $2,070. Leaving weekly resistance unchallenged at $1,969, further selling in this market in the medium term could see the yellow metal retest...